Donald Trump’s theory of international relations is that he doesn’t need a theory of international relations. He just needs relationships. Close, personal relationships forged over chocolate cake and love letters. What autocrats around the world have learned is that a few compliments to Trump will keep them from suffering any consequences for their actions, which is handy. Because it means they can do anything at all. Such as test fire a pair of missiles aimed at blasting ground forces less than a week after firing a pair of ballistic missiles into the waters off Japan.
Just a month ago, Donald Trump made a stunt visit to the DMZ, stepping across the line between South Korea into the North to effuse over Kim Jong Un and telling what a “great honor” it was to tiptoe between the minefields. And as a reward for Trump’s obvious need to grandstand for distractions, Kim has rewarded him by lobbing a whole series of missiles out to sea.
As The Washington Post reports, the Trump White House is looking for ways to say that this is not an issue. John Bolton went on Fox to reassure people that these weren’t intercontinental missiles … so they can only deliver a nuclear weapon to about half the world’s population. Nothing that concerns Trump. Because it’s not as if the U.S. has allies in the region. Or military bases.
Meanwhile, South Korean President Moon Jae-in finds himself trapped. On the one hand, he worked to get Trump to end the Twitter-brinkmanship that was threatening “Little Rocket Man” with “fire and fury.” But Trump has since swung around so completely, investing so much of his public trust in Kim, that South Korean leadership is concerned that Trump is ignoring the threat from the North.
The missiles that Kim fired over the last two weeks might not reach Washington, D.C., but they would have no problem at all reaching Seoul. And while Trump is busy trying to pretend everything is good with his pen pal, North Korea is issuing threats to both South Korea and the United States, saying that a planned joint military exercise would break a promise that Trump made on that stroll across the DMZ. Unless the exercise is cancelled, Kim is promising more to come.
Trump has devoted a huge amount of time and energy promoting his relationship with Kim. He’s held two summits and a third shorter meeting. He’s exchanged gifts, traded letters, and constantly praised the family-killing diplomat-killing American-killing Kim as a “great leader” who “loves his people.” For all the love Trump has slathered on Kim, he has gained … nothing. There was a short-lived program to recover bodies of service members from the Korean War period, but that has already ended. And while Trump made promises about denuclearization, Kim hasn’t given up one bomb, one missile, or given a timetable for any changes at all.
But those meetings were very valuable to Kim, who has secured the ability to travel more freely and held visits with both Chinese and Russian officials. Trump’s meetings with Kim didn’t just generate gaudy coins sold at the White House gift shop, they gave Kim a much elevated international profile that made it harder to maintain sanctions against his country.
Now Trump has given North Korea “a pass on short-range ballistic missiles” according to experts, a pass that “they’re clearly taking advantage of” to perfect their weapons. Of course, if North Korea keeps firing missiles, Trump might get upset.
But Kim has learned … he can always send a card. With Donald Trump, a personal compliment is more important than a ballistic missile.