David Frum/Atlantic:
The Shame and Disgrace Will Linger
On Saturday, President Trump spread a conspiracy theory accusing the Clintons of murdering Jeffrey Epstein.
Many seem to have responded with a startled shrug. What do you expect? It’s just Trump letting off steam on Twitter.
Reactions to actions by Trump are always filtered through the prism of the ever-more-widely accepted view—within his administration, within Congress, within the United States and around the world—that the 45th president is a reckless buffoon, a conspiratorial racist moron, whose weird comments should be disregarded by sensible people.
By now, Trump’s party in Congress, the members of his Cabinet, and even his White House entourage all tacitly agree that Trump’s occupancy of the office held by Washington, Lincoln, FDR, and Eisenhower must be a bizarre cosmic joke, not to be taken seriously. CNN’s Jake Tapper on August 2 quoted a “senior national security official” as saying: "Everyone at this point ignores what the president says and just does their job. The American people should take some measure of confidence in that.”...
But cosmic joke or no cosmic joke, Donald Trump is the president of the United States. You may not like it. I don’t like it. Mike Pompeo doesn’t like it. Mitch McConnell doesn’t like it. Kevin McCarthy doesn’t like it. But it’s still a fact, and each succeeding outrage makes it no less a fact.
I don’t have much on child solicitor Jeffrey Epstein’s death that isn’t conspiracy theory, but follow some experts on Twitter if you are interested (including Sam Bagenstos and Margo Schlanger):
Luke Darby/Guardian:
How white supremacy went mainstream in the US: 8chan, Trump, voter suppression
All of these shooters were obsessed with the “great replacement” conspiracy theory, sometimes referred to as “white genocide”. It’s the idea that shadowy elites – usually Jewish, almost always liberal – are orchestrating the destruction of white culture through demographic change. The theory goes that white culture will be eroded mainly through migration and birthrates: more people of color are arriving in majority white counties, the ones already there are having more and more babies, and birthrates are declining for the soon-to-be-oppressed white people.
But the fans of this theory, and the idea of a demographic threat to a white (male) hierarchical structure, are no longer the preserve of extremists that lurk in the netherworlds of the internet. White supremacy, and the ideas and motivations that drive it, are flourishing in plain sight in the US.
Most notoriously, Donald Trump has become a fan of “great replacement” talking points. In the last week many of the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates have called the president a white supremacist. But Trump is far from being alone, and in recent years the idea has caught fire among more and more mainstream Republicans. The looming threat of their losing political influence permeates every move the party has made for decades.
Come for the tax cuts, stay for the racism:
Susan Raff/WFSB:
Lawmakers say CT's 'Red Flag' gun law is working
Ohio's governor, under pressure after 9 people were killed in Dayton this past Sunday, is proposing a "Red Flag" law.
Connecticut was the first in the nation to pass a "Red Flag" law, and Democrats and Republicans say it’s working.
The state has had the law for about 20 years.
It allows police and the courts to intervene if they determine someone is a threat to others or even themselves.
Eli Yokley/Morning Consult:
Trump Says There’s ‘No Political Appetite’ for an Assault Weapons Ban. There Is.
54 percent of Republicans back an assault weapons ban, including one-third who strongly support it
President Donald Trump on Wednesday downplayed the public support for banning assault-style weapons like the ones used in the deadly mass shootings in El Paso, Texas, and Dayton, Ohio, over the weekend.
“You could do your own polling,” he told reporters before leaving Washington to visit both cities. “There’s no political appetite, probably, from the standpoint of legislature.”
But a new Morning Consult/Politico poll found broad support for such a ban.
NY Times:
The Next Front in the Fight Over Gun Control? Virginia
The state’s elections in November will test the potency of gun rights as a voting issue. Democrats are looking to take power and enact gun control legislation next year.
The Virginia elections will help measure the potency of the issue with voters after a series of mass shootings that has outraged many Americans. And it will match the resources of the movement’s biggest supporter, former New York City Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, against the National Rifle Association, the long-dominant Virginia-based gun rights organization that faces internal turmoil and a steady loss of influence.
The 2018 midterms marked the first time the N.R.A. was outspent by gun control groups in a national campaign.
Dems in Disarray™:
Yeah, that was sarcasm. Press loves to make it sound like if we see each other, WW III.
Matt Viser/WaPo:
Democrats descend on Iowa — with renewed anxiety
As Democrats descend on Iowa to kick off a six-month sprint to the first primary vote, party activists are increasingly anxious that former vice president Joe Biden, the consistent polling leader, has not disposed of persistent questions about whether he is well-equipped to take on President Trump.
Adding to the Democrats’ nervousness is that a clear alternative has yet to emerge. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) is rising in the polls and has a high-quality campaign organization, but doubts linger in some quarters about the appeal of her left-leaning policies in a general election. Sens. Kamala D. Harris (Calif.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are struggling to maintain momentum, while pressure is growing from frustrated voters for many of the weaker candidates to drop out.
That shaky landscape is prolonging the uncertainty in a nominating contest that Democrats describe as the most important of their lifetimes, and it puts the party in the unusual situation of having a leader who draws on a deep well of affection but also gives a lot of people in the party jitters.
Bloomberg:
Farm Discontent Spills Over as Ag Secretary Is Confronted in Minnesota
American farmers took a fresh financial hit from Trump’s trade war over the weekend as China announced a halt to all U.S. agricultural imports after the president threatened Beijing with another tariff increase.
Wertish criticized Trump’s “go-it-alone approach” and the trade dispute’s “devastating damage not only to rural communities.” He expressed fears Trump’s $28 billion in trade aid will undermine public support for federal farm subsidies, saying the assistance is already being pilloried “as a welfare program, as bailouts.”
Others joined in. Brian Thalmann, president of the Minnesota Corn Growers Association, complained about Trump statements that farmers are doing “great” again. “We are not starting to do great again,” he said. “We are starting to go down very quickly.”
Joel Schreurs of the American Soybean Association warned American producers are in danger of long-term losses in market share in China, the world’s largest importer of soybeans.
Perdue sought to soothe the crowd as he defended the president’s policies. “Obviously this is a popular opinion. A lot of applause,” he joked after the audience reacted to Democratic Representative Angie Craig saying aid is not substitute for a strategy on trade. “There is a lot of stress out there.”
A reminder: what Biden’s detractors think about Biden is less important than what Bidden supporters think about Biden, at least if you want to win the primary. His supporters need to bail for him to fall.
Politico:
Trump's use of immigration as 2020 wedge could backfire on other policies
Detractors and even some supporters say it has undermined everything from Trump’s effort to weaken Iran’s Islamist regime to his attempts to strike a trade deal with Mexico.
One major Trump foreign policy goal is forcing out Maduro, whom Trump no longer recognizes as Venezuela's president. Trump and his aides have pointed to Venezuela’s misery — an economic collapse, food and medicine shortages and corruption — as reasons why Maduro should be ousted.
But even as the Trump team has detailed the horrifying conditions that have led millions of Venezuelans to flee, it has ignored calls to grant Venezuelans in the United States “temporary protected status” so that they can stay in America even if they lack legal status.
In fact, Trump has been trying to dismantle the entire TPS program, which has also covered people from several other nations riven with violence or natural disaster. Trump is also trying to cut down on the number of people granted asylum in the U.S. just as Venezuela has become a top source of asylum applications filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.
and speaking of the complaint that Never Trumpers don’t ever vote D:
Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight:
Forget ‘Lanes.’ The Democratic Primary Is A Whole Freaking Transit System.
Among the major candidates, there are quite a few Sanders 2016 –> Biden 2020 voters, although not nearly as many as there are Clinton 2016 –> Biden 2020 voters. Harris gets her support mostly from Clinton voters; relatively little comes from 2016 Sanders voters, consistent with our hypothesis.
Warren is, by contrast, drawing about equal shares of Clinton 2016 and Sanders 2016 voters. Maybe you’re surprised that Warren’s numbers aren’t more slanted to former Sanders supporters, but keep in mind that (i) there are plenty of connections between Clinton and Warren too, e.g. in their appeal to college-educated women; (ii) whereas Clinton’s voters need to look around for a new candidate, Sanders 2016 voters have the option of picking Sanders again. One way to look at it is that 44 percent of Sanders 2016 voters are voting for either Sanders or Warren this time around, while just 24 percent of Clinton 2016 voters are.
So there almost certainly is a robust left policy/ideology lane in the Democratic primary. It’s probably even one of the more well-traveled routes. It’s just far from the only road in town.
For those wondering where I was these past two weeks, it wasn’t the Iowa State Fair. ICYMI:
How I spent my summer vacation: Denali and Kenai, and seeing global warming first hand
The Mountain. Only 30% of visitors get to see it.