A new poll released by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies reports that, for the first time this season, Sen. Elizabeth Warren leads all Democratic candidates, with 29% of Californians likely to vote saying they would choose her from the Democratic field. This is an 11-point rise for Warren since June, the last time the UC Berkeley IGS published poll results.
That number rises to 68% when participants are asked which candidates they are giving at least some consideration to supporting in the Democratic primary. That’s 22 and 23 points higher than the next-highest Democratic candidates, former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders, respectively.
According to the poll, Biden and Sanders have remained at around 20% since June, with Biden sliding slightly and Sanders moving up a couple of points. Sen. Kamala Harris lost ground in her home state, dropping 5 points since June. Also dropping were the number of undecided voters, going from 13% to 8%.
Here are the first-choice numbers for likely California voters.
- Elizabeth Warren 29
- Joe Biden 20
- Bernie Sanders 19
- Kamala Harris 8
- Pete Buttigieg 6
- Beto O’Rourke 3
- Andrew Yang 2
- Amy Klobuchar 2
- Cory Booker 1
- Julián Castro 1
- Tulsi Gabbard 1
- Michael Bennet 1
Those below Bennet are statistically insignificant. Berkeley political science professor Eric Schickler told the Los Angeles Times that this is the first poll to show Warren as a clear alternative to Biden, and probably more importantly, that Sanders and Warren’s progressive strengths are not lowering their chances. “The question was whether she and Sanders would divide the vote on the left of the party” and give Biden a clear path to win. Said Schickler, “The answer from this poll is no.”