Leading Off
● TX-17, TX-32: In a development that came completely out of the blue, multiple media organizations reported on Tuesday evening that former GOP Rep. Pete Sessions, who lost his bid for a 12th term last year in Texas’ 32nd Congressional District, would seek a comeback in the open 17th District. Sessions hasn’t said anything yet, but the following day, the McLennan County Republican Party publicized that they’d be hosting a “Pete Sessions Candidacy Announcement” for the 17th District on Thursday afternoon.
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The news that Sessions will be running to replace retiring Rep. Bill Flores, a fellow Republican, came as a huge surprise for a number of reasons. To begin with, Flores’ 17th District, reliably red turf that includes College Station and Waco, is nowhere near the suburban North Dallas seat that Sessions represented for 22 years. There’s about 80 miles (and two or three congressional districts) separating the nearest point between the two constituencies, and the major population centers of the 17th District are located even further away.
Sessions was born and raised in Waco, but he hasn’t lived there in a very long time. What’s more, less than 3% of the 17th District is in the Dallas media market, so Sessions’ would-be constituents haven’t seen much of him on TV during his decades in Congress, either.
Until now, Sessions had repeatedly said he was interested in seeking a rematch with freshman Rep. Colin Allred, the Democrat who unseated him 52-46 last year, and he never so much as hinted that he was looking elsewhere. Just last week, in fact, Sessions took umbrage with Allred after the Democrat said he was considering voting to impeach Donald Trump. “He is definitely now back on my radar," said Sessions. "My interest is piquing towards re-engaging him in that battle.”
It seems that in just those few days, though, Sessions’ interest piqued towards leaving Dallas behind and moving to a much redder seat. On Tuesday evening, the New York Times’ Jonathan Martin wrote that Sessions was relocating to Waco, which is more than 100 miles away from Dallas.
However, Sessions wasn’t always such a fan of people launching bids for seats where they do not currently live. Just a couple of months ago, when former Navy SEAL Floyd McLendon announced that he would seek the GOP nod in the 32nd District, Sessions responded by snarking, “Has he moved into the district yet?”
And what do Republicans in the 17th District think about Sessions running in their backyard? Flores told the Texas Tribune on Tuesday evening that the reaction “has not been positive,” saying local leaders had told him “they would prefer someone who currently lives, works, and serves in our communities.” Flores seemed to be just as stunned by the news as everyone else, since he continued, “Pete is a friend of mine, but I wish he'd called me first,” adding, “I could have provided some valuable feedback to him.”
Sessions also doesn’t seem to be scaring other Republicans out of the primary in his new home district. Attorney Wes Lloyd announced Wednesday that he was forming an exploratory committee and hoped to decide whether to run in two weeks. Lloyd told the Tribune that he’d been leaning against running until Tuesday night, though there’s no word what role the Sessions news played in his renewed interest.
There is probably one group that will be happy to see Sessions bolt Dallas: Republicans who actually want to beat Allred. Sessions never seemed to realize just how fast his once reliably red district, which swung from 57-42 Romney to 49-47 Clinton, was becoming competitive, and he ran a weak campaign amid 2018’s blue wave. Some of his old allies had even said that they didn’t want Sessions making a comeback in the 32nd, and while the ex-congressman responded incredulously to those calls over the summer by asking, “Why would they need a new candidate?” it seems that he has, in his own way, agreed that it’s time for one.
The good news for Republicans is that Sessions probably would win a general election in the 17th District, a seat that backed Donald Trump 56-39. However, GOP Sen. Ted Cruz carried it by a narrower 54-45 spread two years later (Democrat Beto O’Rourke took the 32nd by a 55-44 margin), so it’s possible that a lousy GOP candidate could give Democrats an opening. Sessions may just fit that bill.
3Q Fundraising
● KS-Sen: Barry Grissom (D): $465,000 raised
● CA-22: Phil Arballo (D): $250,000 raised
● IL-07: Kristine Schanbacher (D): $150,000 raised
● ME-02: Eric Brakey (R): $315,000 raised
● MI-08: Elissa Slotkin (D-inc): $800,000 raised, $1.65 million cash-on-hand
● MN-01: Dan Feehan (D): $100,000 raised in first 24 hours after Oct. 1 launch
● OH-01: Kate Schroder (D): $387,000 raised
Gubernatorial
● MS-Gov: Hickman Analytics is out with a late September poll for Democrat Jim Hood that gives him a small 45-42 lead over Republican Tate Reeves, a small increase from the 43-42 edge they gave him in August. The last survey we saw was a mid-July poll from NBC and SurveyMonkey that had Reeves leading Hood 51-42, which was before he won the GOP nod in late August after a nasty three-week runoff campaign.
House
● FL-18: Democrat Oz Vazquez, a former state deputy solicitor general, announced this week that he would challenge GOP Rep. Brian Mast. This South Florida seat, which includes the Treasure Coast and Palm Beach area, moved from 51-48 Romney to 53-44 Trump, and Team Blue continued to struggle here in 2018. Mast defeated a well-funded challenger 54-46, and according to analyst Matthew Isbell, Republican Senate nominee Rick Scott and GOP gubernatorial nominee Ron DeSantis both took it 52-47.
● KS-03: U.S. Small Business Administration official Adrienne Foster filed paperwork this week to raise money for a GOP primary campaign. Foster used to be a member of the City Council of the small community of Roeland Park, but she lost re-election when she took third place in her 2013 primary. Foster later became executive director of the Governor's Hispanic & Latino American Affairs Commission under then-Gov. Sam Brownback.
● MA-04: Democrat Jesse Mermell recently stepped down as head of the Alliance for Business Leadership to prepare for a run for this open seat, and she announced her campaign this week.
Mermell is a former Brookline selectwoman and vice president of the state branch of Planned Parenthood, and she also served as communications director for then-Gov. Deval Patrick. Mermell later took over as head of the Alliance for Business Leadership, a coalition of state businesses pushing progressive legislation, where she backed the successful efforts to increase the state minimum wage and set up paid family leave.
A number of other Democrats are running to succeed Senate candidate Joe Kennedy III in this reliably blue seat, and another could be on the way soon. The Boston Globe reported on Tuesday that advisers to Newton Councilor Jake Auchincloss, who served with the Marines in Afghanistan, said he planned to announce his bid in days.
However, in a surprise, state Treasurer Deb Goldberg announced on Wednesday evening that she wouldn’t run. Goldberg had set up a fundraising committee about two weeks ago, a move that came just before Kennedy entered the Senate race. However, as we always caution, filing with the FEC and announcing a campaign are two very different things, and an unnamed Goldberg adviser even told WBUR at the time that the odds were only “50-50” that she’d end up running if the seat opened up.
● MI-08: State Board of Education member Nikki Snyder announced Tuesday that she would seek the GOP nod to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin. Snyder, who is not related to former Gov. Rick Snyder, was narrowly elected statewide in 2016 to her current post. Snyder moved just outside this district two years ago, but says she'd "definitely" consider relocating if she won.
Snyder is the first notable Republican to enter the race for this Lansing-based seat. Former Rep. Mike Bishop, who lost to Slotkin 51-47 last year, hasn't ruled out a rematch, but he's sounded very unenthusiastic about the idea and has reportedly been encouraging Snyder to run.
This district moved from 51-48 Romney to 51-44 Trump, but it swung hard to the left last year: According to Bloomberg's Greg Giroux, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gretchen Whitmer carried it 51-46, while Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow won it 49-46.
● PA-17: Green Beret veteran Brian Thomsen announced Wednesday that he would seek the GOP nod to take on Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb. This seat, which includes the Pittsburgh suburbs and Beaver County, backed Donald Trump 49-47, but it was hostile turf for Team Red last year. Lamb defeated GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus 56-44 after court-ordered redistricting threw them into the same district, and according to Bloomberg's Greg Giroux, both Sen. Bob Casey and Gov. Tom Wolf also won here by double digits.
● TX-03: Attorney Sean McCaffity announced on Wednesday that he would challenge freshman GOP Rep. Van Taylor. McCaffity, a Democrat who set up an FEC committee in August, said in his kickoff that he'd already raised $150,000 for his campaign.
This suburban Dallas-Fort Worth seat, which is entirely located in Collin County, has been safely GOP turf for decades, but that may finally be changing. The district moved from 64-34 Romney to a smaller 55-41 Trump, and GOP Sen. Ted Cruz only carried it 51-48 last year. Taylor won his open seat race 54-44 in a race that attracted little outside attention.
● TX-11: Brandon Batch, who previously worked as a staffer for retiring Rep. Mike Conaway, announced Wednesday that he would join the GOP primary for this safely red seat. Batch, who would be the first African American to represent the Midland-Odessa area in Congress, was a running back in the mid-2000s for the Midland High School football team.
● TX-13: Cooke County Judge Jason Brinkley announced Wednesday that he was forming an exploratory committee for a potential GOP primary bid for this safely red open seat. Cooke County makes up just about 6% of this sprawling Panhandle seat.
Legislative
● Special Elections: Here's a recap of Tuesday's special election in Georgia:
GA-HD-71: In an all-Republican runoff on Tuesday night, Republican Philip Singleton easily defeated Marcy Westmoreland Sakrison, the daughter of former Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, by a 59-41 margin to win this safely red seat in the southern outskirts of the Atlanta area. Singleton's victory is a notable setback for state House Speaker David Ralston and his allies, who were backing Sakrison.
Singleton ran explicitly in opposition to the speaker and had the backing of other anti-Ralston Republicans. Those supporters included state Rep. David Clark, who unsuccessfully sought to force Ralston out earlier this year and said just before the election that the speaker's "corrupt money couldn't buy the race."
Ralston has drawn the ire of several Georgia Republicans over accusations that he's used his status as speaker to indefinitely delay criminal cases where he represents defendants. One particularly heinous case involves a teenage girl who was allegedly raped by a traveling evangelist. Ralston has cited his legislative schedule—even when the legislature has been out of session—to have his client's court date pushed back at least eight times.
The most conservative faction of Georgia Republicans has been among the loudest in calling for Ralston, who has served as speaker since 2010, to be ousted. Whether they actually care about his abuse of power is another question, though. Establishment Republicans have long supported Ralston, while many conservatives see him as too moderate due to his reticence in pushing the anti-LGBTQ legislation they've dubbed "religious liberty" bills.
Controversy aside, the makeup of the Georgia House returns to 104-75 in favor of Republicans with one seat vacant. That vacancy, for the 152nd District, will be fought along similar lines, as it is located in another strongly Republican district where Ralston foes will attempt to win another seat in the legislature. That election will occur on Nov. 5 with a runoff on Dec. 3, if necessary.
Mayoral
● Wichita, KS Mayor: The Wichita Eagle reported over the weekend that Mayor Jeff Longwell, a Republican who faces a potentially competitive re-election battle next month, steered a large and crucial city contract for a new water treatment plant to his political allies and friends.
According to the Eagle, the city's selection committee unanimously recommended that Jacobs Engineering receive the $524 million contract to replace the current plant, which officials warn could fail at any time. However, Longwell instead convinced the City Council to award the contract to Wichita Water Partners, where two of Longwell's friends have top positions. Officials warned that Wichita Water Partners not only has less experience with this kind of project than Jacobs Engineering, but that the firm had also sought advice from one of the companies that was blamed for the Flint, Michigan water poisoning.
The Eagle goes on to say that Longwell repeatedly proposed altering the bidding criteria for the contract to favor the company that offered the lowest bid rather than the "best value"—in order words, Wichita Water Partners—and cast the deciding vote that implemented this change. The paper adds that, by directing a taxpayer-funded project to his allies, the mayor appears to have violated city law. The law in question says that City Council members, including the mayor, "shall refrain" from "making decisions involving friends" or "using their influence as members of the governing body in attempts to secure contracts, zoning or other favorable municipal action for friends."
City Council member James Clendenin tried to defend the mayor by arguing that the law was too ambiguous, asking, "What constitutes a friend? How good of a friend? An acquaintance? We've got to be careful not to split hairs." Longwell himself, though, acknowledged to the Eagle earlier this month that he had been friends with two leaders of Wichita Water Partners for the last 12 years, though of course he insists that his relationships had no impact on his actions.
However, Longwell didn't disclose these relationships; rather, the paper only discovered them by analyzing documents. Among other things, one Wichita Water Partners official paid to enter the mayor in a $1,000-per-person charity golf championship before he cast the deciding vote that helped the firm get the plant contract. Marla Flentje, who helped draft the original code of ethics for the state's counties, told the Eagle, "There's nothing wrong with elected officials having friends who are competing for the city's business," but added, "It's the failure to disclose those relationships that we need to be concerned about because that gives rise to the perception of undue influence from private interests."
Longwell predictably defended himself after the story broke, saying he also had close friends at Jacobs Engineering, the company that was initially recommended for the contract. He also argued that he'd chosen Wichita Water Partners because they were a local company.
Longwell's opponent in November's officially nonpartisan race, Democratic state Rep. Brandon Whipple, responded to the Eagle's reporting by calling it "the latest example of the culture of corruption" that he says has flourished under Longwell's watch. In the August primary, Longwell edged Whipple just 32-26, suggesting Democrats could flip this office. If this story gains traction, it could put Longwell in deeper jeopardy.