It’s another Sunday, so for those who tune in, welcome to a diary discussing the Nuts & Bolts of a Democratic campaign. If you’ve missed out, you can catch up anytime: Just visit our group or follow the Nuts & Bolts Guide. Every week I try to tackle issues I’ve been asked about. With the help of other campaign workers and notes, we address how to improve and build better campaigns, or explain issues that impact our party.
There are some elements that are just outside of the control of your campaign. You can’t control the weather; you don’t get to decide if a global pandemic occurs; you can’t help a candidate who doesn’t want to help themselves. All of these things are just out of your control. But every campaign has some responsibility to make sure they aren’t a drag on another and, by the same turn, every campaign works hard to make sure they provide an uplift to all other campaigns that cross into their district. This week, let’s talk drag and uplift.
Every night on any pundit program, you can hear strategists discuss the impact of a presidential campaign on the down-ballot campaigns. The Washington Post lays it out in the way we are used to hearing it:
“It is a bleak picture right now all across the map, to be honest with you,” said one Republican strategist closely involved in Senate races who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss concerns within the party. “This whole conversation is a referendum on Trump, and that is a bad place for Republicans to be. But it’s also not a forever place.”
Your candidate, in your race, however, isn’t running for U.S. Senate. Maybe they aren’t running for the U.S. House. They could be running for the state House. State school board. Local school board. County commission.
How does drag and uplift work for you?
The smaller the race, the more direct contact—especially under COVID
Smaller campaigns, which feature a smaller total voting group, give a candidate more time to directly address the items that influence their district and work to turn them out. If you are running for a city council seat and there are only 5,000 potential voters, you have exactly as much time (and you can put in exactly as much work) as someone running for president. No one has more than 24 hours in a day, so everyone has exactly as much time to put in real work toward their campaign. The difference is that a candidate for a larger office may have more resources and run a different campaign, while a smaller campaign has fewer individuals they need to contact in a one-on-one method.
Recently, I was part of an online discussion regarding the impact of COVID-19 on small campaigns that rely on door-knocking and some mailers, due to their comparatively smaller budget. With difficulty recruiting volunteers to knock doors and trouble getting voters to open the doors, would the down-ballot candidate be harmed?
If down-ballot candidates had to rely on the lift provided by the presidential, Senate, or congressional race above them, would it be enough to carry them into office? The answer, of course, is no. From ballot fatigue to lack of name ID, candidates for the small races needed to be prepared to work on turning out their voters.
At this point, the reality of COVID-19 made something else clear: In the current environment, direct voter outreach would have the most impact on having individuals commit to vote by mail, follow up with friends and neighbors, and build relationships—even virtually—to expand our communities.
The moment that campaigns could reach out to voters at their door or in a public place, it would be down-ballot campaigns that had the quickest ability to shift their approach. Simply put: Small campaigns are more agile and can adapt quickly in their community, which reflects people they may know. This means that, if things change, it will be the smallest campaigns that will be able to reach the most people directly and fastest. It also means that they have the best potential ability through direct word of mouth in local networks—from fellow workers, social media, and just a phone call to a friend—to reach voters while we wait.
Avoiding dragging campaigns down
You’re going to read a lot of stories about the Democratic lift in 2020. Voters are upset with Republicans. They feel as though the Republican Party has left them and they want change—and Trump is in trouble. All of that can be true, but we can drag our own campaigns down from top to bottom if there is not a continuing effort to work all the way to the end, despite polls, to make sure that we ensure victories at all levels.
I was recently given this advice: Don’t be the person who runs, knowing you’ll break the finish line, and that’s good enough. Instead, run hard enough that you know that you’ll be 100 yards past the finish line before the next guy gets there. In October 2016, I received an email which proclaimed the election was over and that we had to start working on the transition, immediately. It made a strong case that if we did not start emphasizing the positive of a big victory, we could tamper with the joy of a strong Democratic campaign and ... well, you know how that turned out.
Democratic voters are just different than Republican voters. Democratic voters fall in love while Republicans fall in line, goes the old phrase. Democratic voters also don’t turn out at the same volume per percentage as Republicans. The Trump administration has been staggeringly incompetent. It has acted in a way that is contrary to sanity. It has prioritized self-interest over society's interest.
Yet the Republican Party is guaranteed roughly 44% of the vote nationally, along with numerous state victories in the Electoral College, before we even start.
Down-ballot campaigns are going to be very important in reminding voters that it isn’t about the national polls, or even the state polls: It is about turning out every Democratic voter in their district. That difference—a few voters in each district—can determine a U.S. House race, a U.S. Senate race, and a presidential race.
If at any point a Democratic candidate starts saying, “We’ve got this,” or “Let the gas up,” someone should ask them what is wrong. I don’t care if you are in a normally blue district and you are facing a terrible Republican candidate and know you’ll win 70-30. In that case, you know you can do more and win 87-13. This is the element Republicans have long believed in. It isn’t just about winning,—it is about running up the score to provide lift everywhere else. And if your campaign isn’t doing that, then start thinking about how you can, right now, in 2020
Next week: We’ll do it live!