Here's a little ray of sunshine on a dark week: Fox News released polling this week that will make Bunker Boy Donald Trump spit out his Diet Coke while watching his favorite faux network.
The one good thing Fox does for real is polling. And the Fox numbers in the crucial states of Wisconsin, Arizona, and Ohio (!) do not look good for Trump, not to mention Senate Republicans.
In Arizona, which Trump won by four points in 2016, registered voters now prefer former Vice President Joe Biden over Trump by four points instead, 46%-42%. And in the race for Senate, Democrat Mark Kelly is also trouncing GOP Sen. Martha McSally 50%-37%.
In Wisconsin, which is one of three Rust Belt states that helped cement Trump's 2016 win, Biden is besting Trump by fully nine points, 49%-40%. That's partly because Trump's support among Republicans is dipping ever so slightly, but perhaps meaningfully.
"A big reason Trump trails Biden is lack of party support: 85 percent of Republicans back him, while 93 percent of Democrats support Biden," writes Fox. "Eight percent of Republicans defect to Biden. In addition, only 87 percent of those who approve of Trump’s job performance support his reelection."
That GOP defection to Biden is killing Trump. But also pay attention to the finding that Trump is getting the votes of less than 90% of those who say they approve of the way he is handling his job. If that continues to be true in November, he'll get slaughtered. That means the Trump camp isn't building on the 42%/43% that everyone has assumed—they're at an even lower starting point in some states.
Finally, Fox polled Ohio, which basically zero people expected to be competitive—including Democrats, Republicans, and the Trump campaign itself. Trump won it by fully eight points in 2016. But surprise!
- Joe Biden: 45%
- Donald Trump: 43%
Turns out, the Trump camp is freaking out about their internal Ohio numbers and spending money there, and in turn, some GOP lawmakers are alarmed to see the campaign putting resources into a state that was supposed to be a gimme.
Part of Trump's problem in Ohio is his handling of the coronavirus. While GOP governor Mike DeWine sits at an impressive 82% approval rating, largely because of his quick action to stem the spread of the pandemic, Trump is at 50% approval.
Daron Shaw, the Republican pollster who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson, calls the contrast between DeWine and Trump "instructive."
“If Trump had responded to the coronavirus outbreak more along the lines of DeWine," Shaw says, "he might have emerged as unbeatable in Ohio and a slew of other battlegrounds.”
In fact, the more America saw of Trump's pandemic response, the less they liked him. Now Trump appears to be in the process of losing Americans on his indefensible response to the senseless murder of George Floyd too. Voters are taking note, even in states like Ohio.
