The Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Texas sure is making life hell for incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn.
Last week, Democrat MJ Hegar drew the support of the party's top Senate super PAC to the tune of $8.6 million. This week, Hegar followed up by attracting another $20 million from Silicon Valley donors, bringing the total buy coordinated among several different pro-Democratic PACs to $28 million, according to Recode.
Anyone interested in sending John Cornyn packing? Give $2 right now for some epic satisfaction on election night.
The last-minute ad blitz in Texas is being led by a little-known super PAC called Future Forward, which is also unleashing a larger $100 million ad buy nationally to help elect Joe Biden president. Future Forward is led by Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz. Recode calls the overall cash infusion one of the most "aggressive plays" to date by tech billionaires, who for years have studied the best ways to maximize the impact of money in politics. "Moskovitz is placing his single biggest public bet yet on the evidence that TV ads that come just before Election Day are the best way to do that," writes Theodore Schleifer.
The Dallas Morning News confirms that some ads started running Tuesday in Texas as part of the coordinated buy between Future Forward, Senate Majority PAC, Strategic Victory Fund, Way to Win, and Mind the Gap.
A Future Forward memo obtained by Recode explains, “Based on an extensive analysis undertaken by Future Forward PAC and Senate Majority PAC, we believe that Democrats have a plausible chance to flip the TX Senate seat with a major financial investment in the race over the next week." The memo added that a last-minute blitz in the final two weeks could "push the odds of victory up significantly -- from 23% to 35-55%."
Hegar's campaign said it also just launched a "seven-figure" buy targeting Black voters that features Barack Obama touting her as a defender of the Affordable Care Act and someone “firmly committed to making the reforms we need to address systemic racism and create a more fair and equitable America.”
Time is of the essence here, specifically because one of Hegar's deficits is name recognition, according to a poll released last week by PPP. The survey, which put Cornyn just three points ahead of Hegar, found that 76% of voters had an opinion about Cornyn while just 61% had an opinion of Hegar. Both candidates' favorables were several points above water: Cornyn 39%-37% and Hegar 32%-29%.
Polling this month has given Cornyn an advantage of anywhere from 3 to 9 points in the race. But clearly the Democratic party and these pro-Democratic donors see something to like in the Texas race. It's likely some combination of the polling, Hegar's room for growth, and Cornyn being a relatively weak incumbent. It's also worth remembering that House Democrats are targeting no less than 10 seats held by Republicans in Texas and have also been pouring millions into the state.
Perhaps the Republican National Committee was seeing some of the same softness Democrats are seeing when they wired $1.3 million to the Lone Star state last month for GOTV efforts.