I know Kos knocks on me for counting the delegates this early, ;-) but I have fun with it and I'm not reading too much into it, and nor should you. These numbers are pretty darn raw.
Latest numbers include polls from Washington DC, South Carolina, the Ipsos-Reid national poll, and Florida. The addition of DC and Florida brings our total count up to 27.
We also have the addition of 139 confirmed SuperDelegates who are endorsing or supporting one candidate or another. Full breakouts. If you can add to this list, please let me know.
Click here to view all of the numbers (273 KBytes)
Click on There's more... to view an image summaring the numbers, with breakouts by primary dates.
By the way, some people who'd seen my diary reposted the link to these numbers on some Clark blogs. My methodology immediately came under attack because I'm a Dean supporter.
Yes, I'm a Dean supporter, but I am trying not to use political preference in making decisions about setting up the chart. Whenever I have some kind of judgement call to make, I put it up for a discussion here, which lets both Clark and Dean supporters in large numbers weigh in, as well as Kerry, Edwards and even Gephardt fans who are occassionally seen around here. I do whatever the consensus says is most statistically accurate.
Most importantly: I don't cherry-pick polls to choose the ones where Dean is ahead. Applying the national numbers to places where I don't have polls is a necessary evil at this point, for which I apologize. I recognize that it is inaccurate. Please note than in recent polls where Clark came even w/ Dean nationally, he led in the totals, largely due to his strength in CA and his post-announcement strength in the mid-atlantic states.
These numbers are FAR more likely to be skewed because of not being able to account for regional differences, and the effects of momentum than they are because I like Dean. So if you're going to post this somewhere, post a link to the diary entry instead, so people can get the whole story.
Thanks.
