Bush's Approval Polls vs. Reelection Polls

The results of this poll conjure up an interesting question:

Which polls should one be looking at in order to gain an idea of whether or not Bush will be reelected?  His Approval Polls or his Reelection Polls?

Bush supporters have long held onto his Approval Rating as evidence that America would give him a second term in office.  Despite all of the negative activity in Iraq and here at home, Bush's Approval Rating has remained above 50%, putting him above both his father and Clinton.  At the same time, they have blasted the Reelection Polls as inaccurate, or too having no bearing because the election season is still far away.

I tend to believe that both polls can be true.  It's possible to approve of the job that one person does and still believe that someone else could do better.  Come 2004, should Bush's Approval Rating still remain above 50%, I believe we may see the American people say just that, with their ballots.