Yay! New 2004 convention delegate counts, new polls, new math!

OK: So I owe 2 out of 3 to Dave Steeves, who provided me w/ a link to the 2004 delegate counts (estimated) by Greenpapers.com, and an Ohio poll that I had missed.

The Greenpapers link is really great, in that it shows delegate counts for each state, broken out by type, and includes dates of state primaries and state conventions... very handy for political organizers and number crunchers alike.

Green Papers 2004 Convention Numbers

Anyway, Dave also sent me Ohio poll numbers, which while old, at least give some indication of where those 159 delegates will go!

Finally, I figured out a way to use Excel to create calculations for polls where no candidate gets 15% or more of the vote.  The formula is more complicated than that of the primaries where 15% is achieved.  If you care, it's as follows:

 - Take the candidate who has the most votes, and subtract 10 from the percentage they obtain.  I.E. Clark wins 13% in the latest Alabama poll, so you get 3%.
 - All candidates who get more than that % get a proportional chunk of delegates.

As always, the PLEOs/superdelegates aren't accurately reflected here, and they CAN make a difference.  Getting an exact count of where all these guys and gals are currently putting their support is something I'll leave up to the campaigns to worry about for now.

Anyway, without further ado, here are the numbers, which improve for Lieberman, but remain pretty much the same for everyone else.

And thanks again, Dave!

Click here to view the latest numbers (159 KBytes)

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