So MANY new polls!
Polls in 8 states since monday alone. It never rains but it pours. After a long drought w/o CA numbers we get 2 polls in the same 24 hours.
The numbers haven't changed much since
my post on Monday, but there have been so many new polls that I thought I should post an update. There's lot more analysis in Monday's post, that I think remains accurate.
Dean rose from 1859 on Monday to 1900 today, and Clark dropped slightly from 920 to 903. Dean has temporarily reversed his short term trend of dropping about 6.5 delegates a day since 12/20.
Click on "There's more" to view the numbers and breakouts by primary date. I've also included some links to historical numbers for comparison.
Kerry made gains in Iowa, offset by lost ground in NH. Dean leads him by only 5% in pledged delegate counts after New Hampshire (lowest since I started tracking)! No movement in Kerry's SuperDelegate numbers as a result of his Mo though. By contrast Clark and Dean have each picked up 4 and 5 Supers, respectively, who will come in handy if this race gets any closer!
Lieberman lost 1/3 of his dels through Feb 3rd due to the new DE poll (he previously led there.) In dates up to Super Tuesday, he now leads only in Rhode Island, and even there he is only tied for 1st w/ Dean and Kerry, with a very old poll. The data from other states suggest he is all but finished, but you never know... look at Kerry's surge!
Full numbers
To view the latest numbers in detail, click here (316 KBytes)
I'm not including DC numbers yet, as no delegates have been allocated. However, The Green Papers estimate 9 would have gone to Dean, and 7 to Sharpton, if the DC "primary" were to be binding.
Historical numbers
January 12th
December 19th
November 28th
Recap of new features
New Additions: SuperDelegates
I've added the information from the latest poll of DNC Members to help improve the accuracy of my SuperDelegates numbers. However, the poll data are not "hard counts", so I've provided both numbers in my totals: Confirmed and Likely are the orange and yellow lines. Confirmed are based on announcements and other hard research. Yellow are based on the latest poll of DNC Members. See http://www.grumpyoldbear.com/Superdelegates.htm for more detailed explanation and breakouts.
One big thing that sucks is that ABC actually contacted all of the Supers and asked them who they were supporting. They got 90 or so for Dean, whereas I have only been able to identify 66. They also had more for Gep and Clark than I had (although I had all of their Kerry people, woo hoo, largely thanks to the Kerry Web site actually posting them instead of keeping them secret.)
If anyone can help me figure out the remaining 30 Dean people and the missing Clark and Gep people, I would greatly appreciate it.
New Additions: Meta Analysis of National Numbers
I got some criticism that using only one national poll to fill in the missing states was less accurate than aggregating several national polls. ohwilleke gave me some advice on how to do some quick and dirty meta analysis. The results have already confused some people, so let me try and explain briefly.
- I'm taking the percentage for each candidate and the total # of respondents.
- I'm multiplying those together to get "Total Respondents for Each Canddiate" in that poll.
- I'm adding all the respondents from each poll together, both for each candidate and total.
- The percentage of total respondents for each candidate, divided by the total respondents for all candidates, is the "meta" number.
The end result is, in this case, 356.4 respondents for Dean, out of 1504 total.
