Final 2000 state polls for comparison

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Thursday October 28, 2004 · 5:14 PM PDT

2004/10/28 · 17:14

I think it could be useful to look at final 2000 state polls and see how the results differed on election day.

Maybe they show which states benefite from good GOTV efforts and/or polling biases particular to each state. Maybe.

If anything they're very interesting and a warning not to get too wrapped up with numbers within the MOE.

Special thanks to CADEM at the Swing State Project for the analysis Actual results under the fold.

First those states that trended Gore in 2000

Arizona: Last poll showed Bush up by 10 points, outside the margin of error. Bush won by 6.

Wisconsin: Last poll showed Bush up by 2. Gore won by a hair.

Maine: Last poll showed a 42-42 tie. Gore won by 5.

New Hampshire: Last poll had Bush up big, by 10. Bush only won by a hair.

Ohio: Two last polls, one by Zogby (who was right on nationally), showed Bush up by 9 and 10, both outside the margin of error. Gore lost by 4

Oregon: A split. Last two polls showed Gore up by 1 and down by 4, respectively. Gore won by a fraction of a percent.

Pennsylvania: Last poll showed Gore up by 2. Gore won by 4.

West Virginia: Of three last polls, two showed Bush up by 10 points, and one had Bush up only by 2. Bush won by 6.

Wisconsin: Last poll showed Bush up by 2. Gore won by a hair.

States that trended Bush:

Arkansas: The last three, concurrent, polls showed a tie, Bush by 1 and Bush by 3, respectively. Bush won by 6.

Florida: The last poll, Zogby's, showed Gore up 3. Well, you know what happened.

Iowa: Two last polls showed Gore up by 1 and 2 points, respectively. Gore won by a hair.

Michigan: Last poll showed Gore up by 7, but still within the margin of error. Gore won by 4.

Missouri: A split. Of the two last polls, one showed Gore up 1 point and the other showed Bush up 4. Bush won by 4.

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