Recession On The Way?

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Thursday February 19, 2004 · 6:01 PM PST

2004/02/19 · 18:01

I haven't seen or heard this anywhere this week. If someone beat me to it on the diaries, sorry, but Billmon just trotted this little nugget out. It doesn't make me happy because our economy sucks enough, but gosh darn, does it spell trouble for bush.

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/business/US/consumer_confidence_poll_040217.html

The ABC/Money Consumer Comfort Index, based on ratings of current economic conditions, lost seven points -- a single-week fall that's been matched just twice before, in January 2001 and February 1990. In each of those cases, recessions followed.

The drop erases gains through December and January, pushing confidence back under its long-term average. And expectations have worsened as well: Pessimism about the economy's direction has jumped by 10 points, to its highest in five months.

The change -- hardly happy news for President Bush -- coincides with the height of the Democratic primary season, in which the candidates have been sharply critical of his economic performance. An ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll last week found Bush's overall job approval its lowest of his career, 50 percent. Disapproval of his handling of the economy was up 10 points since December to 54 percent, two points from its worst. And 47 percent said most people have gotten worse off financially under Bush.

The disappointing labor market is a likely irritant: The economy has lost jobs for three consecutive years (a first since the Labor Department started keeping track in 1939), and fewer jobs were added last month than economists expected -- not enough even to keep pace with population growth.

This is bad news for Bush, but worse news for us. We're the one's suffering out here. I hope things change soon, but this could spell doom for BushCo. How the press even lets these guys spin the economy without calling them Bald Face Liars is beyond me.

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