50 Percent

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Monday April 05, 2004 · 10:53 AM PDT

2004/04/05 · 10:53

I must credit and thank DC Political Report for their wonderful site and for the following polls.

To understand polls and to not panic at the constant fluctuations showing Bush ahead by 2 one day and Kerry ahead by 3 another, I decided to review all of the March state polls on the DC Political Report website.

If a state is polling above 50 percent for Bush at this point in the race, I would say that it is a solid Red or Republican state and we should concentrate our energies else where (although if Bush is in the low 50s and Kerry is in the 40s, then the state might turn competitive given national trends).

If a state is polling below 50 percent for Bush, no matter who is ahead in the state, then that state is competitive, or a battleground state.

Here is the list of polls:

Solid Red Republican

IDAHO    3/12/04    B    57    K    23
ARIZONA    3/18/04    B    51    K    42
UTAH    3/20/04    B    66    K    24
KANSAS    3/4/04    B    57    K    39
OK. 3/1/04    B    50    K    40
ALABAMA    3/18/04    B    59    K    27
N. C.     3/13/04    B    51    K    43
TENN    3/22/04    B    52    K    41
KY    3/24/04    B    52    K    37

Battleground States

WASH.    3/25/04    B    44    K    50
OREGON    3/4/04    B    40    K    45
CALI.    3/4/04    B    40    K    45
NEVADA    3/17/04    B    49    K    38
N.MEX.    4/1/04    B    47    K    47
COLO. 3/16/04    B    46    K    42
MISSO.    3/23/04    B    49    K    42
ILL.    3/10/04    B    39    K    47
IOWA    3/23/04    B    41    K    51
MINN. 3/31/04    B    38    K    50
FLA    3/13/04    B    45    K    48
WISC.     3/31/04    B    49    K    45
MICH.     4/1/04    B    45    K    47
OHIO 4/1/04    B    46    K    45
PENN.     3/30/04    B    46    K    40
W. VA    3/30/04    B    47    K    46
MD    3/24/04    B    43    K    48
CONN.    3/28/04    B    33    K    52
N. HAMP    4/1/04    B    48    K    45

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