WSJ/NBC Poll -- Bush 44 / Kerry 40

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Thursday July 22, 2004 · 6:19 PM PDT

2004/07/22 · 18:19

It's a very new poll and not much info is available online yet. The real release seems to be tomorrow since what is online has a July 23 date attached. The survey is of 813 registered voters from July 19 to 21 and has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points. MSNBC just broadcast the head-to-heads, which is why I thought I'd pass the info along:

Bush 44
Kerry 40
Nader 2 (iirc)

No sense in getting too freaked, it's impossible to know yet what is behind these numbers. WSJ put up some background from the poll on a good bump by Edwards. Frankly, from the info here, I don't see how we are down to 40%.

IT'S HIS PARTY, TOO: Edwards's popularity jumps as Democrats convene.

more...

The percentage of registered voters with positive views of North Carolina's Democratic senator rises 12 points in the month Kerry picked him to be running mate. In a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, 44% are favorable toward Edwards, up from 32% in June's poll and 36% in March, when he was Kerry's last serious rival for the nomination.
Edwards is seen negatively by 20%, up five points since June but far better than Cheney's showing. Cheney slips a tad more from June, with 42% viewing him negatively and 36% positively. His unfavorable percentage equals Bill Clinton's, but Clinton also is viewed positively by 42% -- six points above his score in a January poll, before his book was out.
Just 9% fault Edwards for his success as a trial lawyer -- Republicans' main attack thus far.
[snip]
KERRY EDGES UP in voters' views, but convention is his debut for many.
The poll shows a 42% plurality looking favorably on the Democrat, up slightly from 40% in last month's Journal/NBC poll. The number with negative views remained 35%. The survey of 813 registered voters from July 19 to 21 has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
While the voter findings are similar across age, region and income groups, Kerry is seen more favorably among women (45% versus 39% of men), those 65 and older (53%) and blue-collar workers (50%). Convention week, the pro-Bush Club for Growth plans $1 million in TV ads in Boston and six key states showing Kerry as flip-flopper -- echoing a Bush theme.
In the ads, Kerry is a spinning weather vane atop a barn.

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