Hey all,
I've spent some time in the past few days coming up with some ideas about the RNC. It's something I've been thinking about for a long time as a NYC Alum (97-03), and I think this way of explaining it is strong.
There's an opportunity this august to tie a few of the budding anti-bush threads together and re-enforce them all. It also gives us an opportunity to coin a new phrase ("Bush Republicans"), which we can use to drive a wedge into the GOP.
Read on, and if you like this, recommend the diary. If this message can get pushed out over the next week, maybe we Kosmopolitans can shift the way the SCLM frames Bush's convention!
The main thing to reinforce is the question: Why is Bush being nominated in a city that's unfriendly to him? The only answers are
Hubris and 9-11.
Here's how the whole thing goes, I think:
1) Point out Bush/Cheney 04's allergy to unfriendly crowds. Down to the county level they're campaigning on friendly turf, to say nothing of the loyalty oaths, t-shirt police, and adoring "questions" they get from their pre-screened crowds.
Meme: Bush is secretive, avoids tough questions, and likes to campaign on friendly turf
2) New York State is going against Bush, in spite of the fact that we have a Republican Governor, a Republican Major, and many Republican congressmen. Why? New York State likes Rockafeller Republicans, not Bush Republicans.
Meme: Bush is unpopular with moderates in his own party
3) New York City is adamantly anti-bush. Start with a cosmopolitan world capital of culture and finance, add broken promises from ground zero, firehouses closing, the war in Iraq (which NYC'ers overwhelmingly opposed) and all the level orange hokum, which palatably disrupts life in the city in a way it doesn't in most towns in America, and you've got a population not given to support the president or his radical right wing agenda.
Meme: New York City, home of ground zero, rejects Bush
4) (The money shot) -- So then given all that, why is Bush being nominated in Manhattan?
a) Hubris: the decision was made when it seemed like Bush was unstoppable. Pride cometh before the fall.
b) 9-11: this administration has shown a repeated willingness to use the tragic events of September the 11th 2001 for political gain. Why the hell else would they push the convention back so late, a decision that forced several states to alter their election rules?
Meme: Bush's administration is marked by pride and a willingness to exploit tragedy for personal political gain
5) This decision has galvanized grassroots citizen opposition. While the Democrats will more or less let Bush have his day in the sun, the thousands of regular people who have opposed his radical agenda are using the occasion to protest, to highlight his record, and most importantly to organize to elect his rival in November.
Meme: There's a lot more than protest going on in opposition to the radical right wing agenda.
6) But 9-11 has ceased to be much of a source of political energy for Bush, and his stature in the public eye has fallen dramatically from its high point in early 2002. New York could be this war president's Waterloo.
Meme: It's all downhill from here for Bush.
BONUS -- ON PROTESTERS:
The only thing I'm really worried about is the possibility of agent provocateurs. I don't think they're going to be a PR problem for us. I think in the run up we should play into the hype a bit, but only so that when the city doesn't erupt into a riot scene it's a bit of a disappointment. We also need to push the other rational factual story that there are critical differences between NYC'04 and CHI'68, so that when the disappointment comes, there's a story for reporters to fall back on.
The truly radical elements who choose direct action are going to be using de-centralized tactics meant to disrupt things. They will be focused on infiltrating the convention in small cells, or blocking traffic in groups of 5 to 10. This doesn't make for great reporting on the TV news.
Bush is going to see the same amount of protest in New York City as he sees in any of his infrequent visits to a world Capital. Remember the last time when he was in London, where protesters re-enacted the tearing down of the Statue of Saddam, but with W instead? That was almost a quarter million people. Similar numbers are to be expected.
If there is anything really ugly, we should immediate suspect the work of planted agents. In Chicago 68, out of a few thousand protesters, it was later revealed that several hundred (some reports suggest 1 in 5) were working for the city police, the state police, or for COINTELPRO.
With the patriot act legalizing the covert infiltration of political groups by agents of the state this is a real concern. If violence erupts, we should immediately demand that the Justice department and NY officials come clean about any agents they had planted within protest groups.
