Watching these debates, the biggest thing I took away is that no one, in any debate I watched, looked like an obvious loser! Each candidate I saw held his own. It's primetime politics and if you can even make it to this stage, you generally will do well.
Now, about Mr. Bush specifically, what I found striking about his 2000 performance was the detail he weaved into his performance. If you remember correctly, in 2000, Bush actually had a platform. That platform was formed during the primaries, when he actually had an opponent who he respected, Sen McCain. Because he had fully fleshed out policy proposals which were much more detailed than simple talking points and slogans, he came across very compitent and able. I can see reviewing those debates why he won them.
He did NOT win them because he was more 'likable.' Gore looked just as sharp. Nope, he won them for one reason and one reason only. His team won the expectations game. Gore was treated as an incumbent and Bush as a challenger. Favor Bush. Bush came out and looked just as capable as Gore, very detailed policy in hand, even to the point of anecdote, such as schools in Houston.
Bush won the detates because his people set the bar so low, that anything more sophisticated than a farting contest would go his way. Well, he did much more than that. He was Gore's equal. He had just as much of a laundry list. Many 4 and 5 point policy propoals. Many stories. And many ways in which he could relate to the people watching. At one point, when he makes mention of his daughters attending Austin Public High School, you can see him cleverly trying to connect.
Now fast forward. Bush has lived in a bubble for 4 years. He no longer talks policy, but rather broad slogan. There is nothing specific about what he promises. "tax cuts creat jobs." I believe while that works on a stump and soundbite driven society, when Kerry is up there articulating the various ways he will actually create jobs, especially with Energy Independence initiatives, Bush is going to look alot less detailed. He did not win that first debate on style. The media is lying. He won it, IMO, on detail mixed with style and low expectations.
Right now, Bush is almost incapable of getting through a press conference. He can't answer questions directly. He is defensive (looks less confident) and stubborn. He cannot weave anymore, now everything he says is very "short sentence, period, pause, short sentence."
Kerry will come out with a full fledge platform, he will look strong, he will look confident, and he will likely come through less rigid. I just have confidence he will.
Right now this whole election has really one question: SO WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO?
I think most people would trust both candidates with their safety, with the economy, etc. The point of debates is to answer the question regarding SPECIFICS. Bush has NADA. He has slogan, generalities, and tolken policy that really has nothing to do with reality. We know where his policy is coming from, it was in his RNC Speech.
I am really hoping that the debate prep for Kerry will fully explain the consiquences of Bush's proposals:
Bush's Healhcare Plan: No More Employer Granted Healtcare
Bush's Stay the Course: DRAFT DREAFT DRAFT
Bush's War on Terror: HOW MANY MORE COUNTRIES MR. PRESIDENT? HOW MANY MORE HAVE TO DIE?
Bush's Economic Policy: HOW MUCH WILL PEOPLE AS RICH AS THERESA SAVE WHILE MILLIONS MORE LOSE THEIR JOBS?
There has to be a "WHERE'S THE BEEF" Moment. He has to slam Bush with a four or five word question that cannot be answered and that will stick. It has to happen.
Right now Kerry is winning the expectations game, but for whatever reason, the media still thinks Bush will come out and possibly Fart the star spangled banner like some Howard Stern show. If Bush comes out, smiles, and signs his name on the podium, and then says "Yes" and "NO" to every question, he will win, Unless Kerry proves them wrong. Right now, Bush is winner by default, before it starts. Kerry has to come out, do what Bush did in 2000.
WEAVE POLICY WITH ANECDOTE AND LOOK STRONG BUT WARM. AND BY ALL MEANS, HAVE A "WHERE'S THE BEEF" MOMENT.
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