I've posted new Delegate counts w/ the results of the latest Gallup poll.
Important note: I've removed the SuperDelegates from the delegate counts. Now, only votes that can be obtained from a Primary or Caucus vote will be apportioned.
Counting undecideds (method 1):
Lieberman's breaking into the 15% bracket means he takes delegates away from Clark and Dean. The end result is that Dean takes first place, and Clark falls into third. Clark loses more dels than Dean because he falls out of the 15%.
Eliminating undecideds (method 2):
Clark doesn't lose all of his national dels using this method, as he's above 15% of all non-undecided votes, but he and Dean still have to split dels w/ Lieberman. The rankings stay the same.
Delegates by date: I've moved the delegates earned by Date to the top of the page.
The national poll only affects these numbers slightly, as most early states have their own polls.
After IA and NH, Dean leads Gephardt by 28% or 8 delegates.
After the Feb 3rd primaries, Clark takes over the second place spot from Gephardt. Dean leads Clark by 38% or 42 dels
Clark stays in second during the polls between Feb 3rd and Super Tuesday. Dean leads Clark by 31% or 94 dels before Super Tuesday.
After Super Tuesday, Lieberman support finally starts showing up., Clark drops to 3rd, and Dean leads Lieberman by 48 votes, or only 8%. So, Lieberman campaign, take heart... wherever you are.
Click here to view the latest numbers (263 KBytes)
Click here for previous diary entries.
A poll about methodology follows in the extended copy.
Method 1 counts undecideds as part of the vote. A candidate has to get 15% or more of all the votes, including the undecideds, in order to get delegates.
Method 2 removes the undecideds from the vote count. A candidate has to get 15% of all of the non-undecided votes in order to get delegates. This means that w/ 30% undecided, a candidate w/ 10% of the general vote can get delegates. This is done because very few people go to the polls and vote undecided on primary day. At the same time, it's impossible to guess which candidate has the best chance of picking up the "undecided" vote. It may be that one candidate or another will appeal more to the people who have yet to tune in.