Hackett Beats DeWine AND McEwen In Zogby Poll

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Thursday October 27, 2005 · 6:51 PM PDT

2005/10/27 · 18:51

The latest Zogby Battleground '06 poll has Paul Hackett decisively beating both Mike DeWine and former Ohio Republican Congressman (and likely DeWine primary challenger) Bob McEwen in head-to-head matchups.

Now, this is data from the middle of September, but it's from the latest Battleground States poll that Zogby has done -- and I haven't seen any polls, from Zogby or anyone else, that are any newer than this. (If anybody knows of any, please post them here! Thanks!)

The September date means that this was done back when Paul Hackett was Mike DeWine's only Democratic challenger, before Sherrod Brown changed his mind and decided to enter the race after all. It'll be interesting to see the next set of Zogby polls, to see if they include numbers for Brown as well as Hackett.

Full poll breakdown (including for the other key race, the one for governor) after the jump.

From the Zogby Battleground '06 Poll for September 16 - 21, 2005 (italics are all Zogby's interpretation, not mine):

Ohio

Governor --

Coleman (D) 41%
Petro (R) 37%

Governor --

Blackwell (R) 44%
Coleman (D) 43%

Governor --

Coleman (D) 43%
Montgomery (R) 34%

Governor --

Strickland (D) 42%
Petro (R) 35%

Governor --

Blackwell (R) 45%
Strickland (D) 43%

Governor --

Strickland (D) 44%
Montgomery (R) 33%

Senator --

Hackett (D) 44%
DeWine* (R) 36%

Senator --

Hackett (D) 42%
McEwen (R) 37%

Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 1170 likely voters statewide, conducted Sept. 16-21, 2005. MOE +/- 2.9
percentage points

Ohio's Republican Governor, Bob Taft, who is currently the nation's least popular governor after scandals involving unreported gifts and a truly bizarre scheme involving
taxpayer dollars and rare coins, has left Ohio's Republican Party--the historically dominant party in the Buckeye State--in serious trouble. While Ohio voters do not register by party, the state has been home to a number of prominent national Republicans, including ancestral members of the current governor's family.

Now, however, only Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, the African American who figured prominently in the 2004 election, as both a target of Democratic scorn and a
Republican hero, holds a slight edge against both Democratic Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman and Democratic Congressman Ted Strickland. Other Republicans, like
Attorney General Jim Petro and State Auditor--and former Attorney General--Betty Montgomery, do not fare as well.
Should Blackwell be the GOP's nominee, this will be a close--and explosive--fight to the finish.

The other race to watch in Ohio may be the GOP primary for the U.S. Senate. Senator Mike DeWine, one of the "Gang of 14" that brokered a deal that both ensured the confirmation of a number of President Bush's judicial nominees and prevented Republican leaders from employing the so- called "nuclear strategy", is in deep trouble with the GOP base.

Should DeWine continue to be his party's candidate--which, at present, is questionable--he will likely face either Paul Hackett, the ex-Marine turned incendiary Bush critic who lost by a smaller-than-expected margin to Republican Congresswoman Jean Schmidt. Hackett outpolls the incumbent.
Republicans may find a stronger candidate in former Congressman Bob McEwen, who trails Hackett by less than the incumbent DeWine. A McEwen-Hackett race would be
particularly interesting to watch, given McEwen's record as a pro-defense hawk and Hackett's dovish opposition to the Iraq War he participated in. [UPDATE: Questions have been raised about the Zogby poll's methologies, and whether they're truly capable of creating an accurate result. All I can say for sure is that his polling of Minnesota matches up with local polling, so I'll trust him for now.]

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