Dick Morris writes in today's
Hill News on the prospect of a Condi Rice presidential run in 2008.
His conclusion:
The political fact is that a Rice candidacy would destroy the electoral chances of the Democratic Party by undermining its demographic base.
Acknowledging that "she isn't running -- nor is there any indication that she is harboring thoughts of a candidacy," Morris nevertheless calls for a draft. He says she "is a work in progress. Her rise has been impelled by her merits and achievements rather than any efforts on her part to curry favor in the media. She is still working and still progressing. But keep your eye on this political star. It is rising and may one day be ascendant."
Should we be quaking in our boots? More below.
(By the way, didn't Dick Morris used to be a Democrat?? Sheesh.)
Morris makes the case for Condi as follows:
Rice's credentials for a candidacy are extensive and will grow throughout her tenure at the State Department. As former chancellor of Stanford University, she would have much in common with the pre-political careers of Woodrow Wilson and Dwight Eisenhower, presidents of Princeton and Columbia universities. Her service as national security adviser during a war and her current efforts as secretary of state demonstrate her ability to handle crises and to conduct herself with dignity and impact on the world stage.
As a social conservative and deeply religious person, she would face no bar in winning the votes of the Christian right, so crucial to winning the Republican nomination. Unlike former New York Mayor Rudy Guiliani (R) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) -- both of whom could probably win in November -- she would be very attractive to the pro-life, anti-gun-control, anti-affirmative-action base of the GOP.
And she's acting the part too:
As she tours the continent after her Senate confirmation, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is like a rock star -- her every movement, her every meeting covered by an adoring media.
America's first black female secretary of state is doing in public what she has always done in private -- speaking frankly about America's priorities and the realities of the post-Cold War world. As she jokes with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, loosening up his dogmatic anti-American policies, lectures Russia about freedom and warns Israel of tough decisions ahead, one thing is obvious: A star is being born.
Traveling without the entourage customary for secretaries of state, on time, mapping out in advance her first six months of travel, Rice is a new force in American politics.
Condi's electoral impact could be huge:
John Kerry got 54 percent of his vote from three groups that, together, account for about a third of the American electorate: African-Americans, Hispanics and single white women. Rice would cut deeply into any Democrat's margin among these three groups and would, most especially, deny [Hillary] Clinton the strong support she would otherwise receive from each of them.
As Morris implicitly recognizes, a Condi nomination would permit Republicans to say that they have ushered in a new era of racial (and sexual) opportunity and equality.
America longs to put the period on the disgraceful chapter in our nation's history that began when the first slave arrived at Jamestown, Va., more than 400 years ago. We also want to send a message to every girl, and every African-American or Hispanic baby, that there is no ceiling and that you can rise as far as your ability will carry you. The day Condi Rice is sworn in as president, regardless of the fate of her administration, that message and the punctuation of our history of racism will be obvious.
The same Republicans who proudly tout Abraham Lincoln's party would have something new to shout about -- without all the inconvenience that Lincoln presents of explaining an ideology that conflicts with modern conservatism.
Should we be afraid of Condi? If not in 2008, later? I say yes. Very afraid.
The vast majority of Democrats would, of course, vote against her. But for the foreseeable future, it appears that presidential elections will be decided based on tiny electoral shifts in a selected few states. Some of those states -- Ohio, Illinois, Michigan -- have widely varying demographics, and Kerry did well or made it close in part due to substantial urban black support. A shift in that dynamic could have huge consequences.
No doubt, there are some Republicans who will not be persuaded to vote for a black person or a woman, let alone a black woman. However, that bite into her electoral base could be overwhelmed by the bites she would take out of traditional Democratic electoral bases.
Could 2008 be a year when I would be rooting for racists to hold true to their racist ideals and refuse to vote for a black woman?
