What a shocker...the polling outfit that had John Kerry running BEHIND his national numbers in California last summer now has EVERY ONE of Governor Ahnuld's initiatives easily passing.
The internals tell the story here. SurveyUSA's pool of voters was damn near even between Republicans and Democrats. A tad cheeky, given that Democrats outnumber Republicans in this state by a mere...oh...1,260,000 voters.
Furthermore, the pool of likely voters assumes about a 52% voter turnout (among registered voters). That might be a bit low, given that 61% turned out for the 2003 special election.
The actual numbers on the other side....
PROP 73 (ABORTION RESTRICTIONS)
(COMMENTARY: If you believe an anti-choice initiative is up 20 in California, you are beyond help. An August Field Poll had it even at 45-45.)
PROP 74 (TEACHER STATUS)
(COMMENTARY: A late September PPIC poll had it 43-47, while the Field Poll had it 46-37. This poll was the closest to the apparent reality.)
PROP 75 (UNION BASHING...er...UNION DUES)
(COMMENTARY: PPIC did not poll on this, and Field had it 55-32. This might pass, but there is an effective ad campaign airing over the past few weeks whose tagline is "Prop 75 is not about helping workers, it is about shutting them up." I am guessing this is close to 50/50)
PROP 76 (BUDGET--INCREASED EXECUTIVE CONTROL)
(COMMENTARY: This is where SUSA loses any touch with reality. PPIC had this one at 26/63, while Field had it even lower had it at 19/65.)
PROP 77 (REDISTRICTING REFORM)
(COMMENTARY: This one is also detached from any reputable polling. PPIC had this at 33/50, while Field had it at 32/46).
Well...The internals are bad. The poll questions have a ridiculous bias in favor of the initiatives.
I'll bet anyone a Happy Meal (limit:10 people) that a majority of these initiatives fail on Election Day. Any takers??