New UK Poll Shocker: LibDems Nearer Tories

The BBC relays news of the latest Times/Populus tracking poll, and it's a bit of a shocker:

Labour: 41%
Conservatives: 27%
Liberal Democrats: 23%

Analysis below the fold....

No direct link yet that I can find — please post if you've got one. Instant analysis, assuming these numbers are accurate:

1. Labour will coast into an easy victory on May 5th, although for various reasons their Parliamentary majority will be diminished. A hung Parliament looks unlikely.

2. The Tories are collapsing, with deep erosion within what should be their core base. Michael Howard has run a miserable campaign from the looks of it.

3. Charles Kennedy is truly blessed, and his party looks set to gain well in this election. (In 2001 the LibDems had 18.8% of the national vote.) If this poll is accurate, and the voting public takes it into account, the Liberal Democrats could shock: emerging as the "real alternative" to Labour and consigning them to new status as Britain's #3 party. (Wow, wouldn't that be something?) The LibDems' share is peak-stable going into this election. (There are no signs of a late drop-off. Voters appear to be tuning out Tony Blair's electoral arguments re: the Liberal Democrats.) With such a large proportion of undecideds, and a comfortable Labour lead, the LibDems are in great shape.