Is it really all that surprising that Roberts will be confirmed so easily? I would argue that what we are seeing today has its roots in the complete strategic failure of Democrats from the outset.
Flashback to the night where Bush nominated Judge Roberts for SCOTUS. Did Democrats have a pre-prepared strategy to deal with Roberts, or were they caught flat footed? All I remember is soundbites that lauded Roberts credentials and praise for his intellectual ability. We heard statements of not wanting to pre-judge, diplomatic overtures and a call for fairness. This tepid response, coupled with the outright glee of Republicans had the combined effect of presenting Roberts as downright reasonable. The media mirrored the reaction and by the next day Roberts was framed. This approach was also evident here, with many holding fire and instead we even heard some statements bordering on complimentary.
The opinion polls that came out directly after Bush introduced Roberts were overwhelming favorable. Roberts was a complete unknown quantity to most everybody, so this approval was in direct relation to the initial responses. From this moment onward, the perceived looming fight at the nomination hearings was a non-starter, barring any earth shattering development. Roberts was already framed as brillant, relatively moderate compared to other suggest candidates, qualified and inevitable. So, this notion that we wait until the hearings and then dismantle Roberts always seemed like a losing strategy.
Why did Democrats not have a strategy right out of the gate? Why was Roberts not vetted so as to have solid negative talking points when the cameras rolled? I found out a great deal about some alarming Roberts positions after a quick google search, surely Democrats should have had ample research to present questions straight away. We failed to plant doubt in American minds while Roberts was still a blank slate, instead we enabled the Republicans to mold Roberts as a reasonable candidate.
Once we reached the hearings, many had their hopes riding on forceful debate which would expose Roberts. To enter these proceeding with such a staggering hill to climb, coupled with common sense that suggested Roberts would evade anything controversial, meant that any optimism was just that and not necessarily practical.
The lesson to be learned about this nomination process is we need to fight and frame from the outset, before public opinion has gelled. The filibuster deal was also a contributor because Democrats spent too much time worrying about "extraordinary", instead of focusing on this nominee. We need to be prepared the moment Bush nominates if we hope to derail the conservative agenda. Americans support the Roberts nomination, but this is more a function of our failure than it is a manifestation of affinity.
