Housing debate over: hard landing is here, now! (with table)

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday October 04, 2006 · 5:44 AM PDT

2006/10/04 · 05:44

This is an addition to my Housing and Housing Update diaries, posted in June and August, which included a table of price increases or decreases over 10 months and then 1 year for over 50 housing markets, using data obtained from the Housing Tracker web site. Year over year data for 49 housing markets now clearly shows that a "hard landing" is already here. After posting the data, I summarize and reach some conclusions below the fold.

The table below the fold lists housing markets by percentage of decline from peak prices, or strength of year over year price increases where applicable, and categorizes markets by whether they are still booming, or having a soft, hard, or crash landing. For an explanation of the definitions, and an explanation of the Housing Tracker data I am using, see my first diary.

Here are the definitions and methodology I have used in all 3 diaries:

A soft landing is a sustained period of at least 12 months where house prices approximate the inflation rate (presently 3.8% year over year), neither exceeding it by 1/4% a month (3% a year), and also do not decline by 1/4% a month or more (-3% a year) for a period of 12 months or more. Using this definition, any yearly appreciation of between -3% and +6.8% is a soft landing.
Any increase of more than +6.8% over a 12 month period is a boom.
Any decrease of more than -3% over a 12 month or greater period is a hard landing.
Any decrease of more than -10% over a 12 month or greater period is a crash.

An explanation of a couple of symbols below: The letter h is used to denote the highest price of the last 12 months where significant (note that frequently this occurred in June). An L depicts a seasonal low, to show the extent of seasonality in a few markets where it has been dramatic.
In those cases where there is a clear decline from the all-time high price, even though the year over year price is still positive, only two showed seasonal declines last year at this same time. In those two cases (Oklahoma City and Portland), I have normalized for the seasonal decline by offsetting the overall decline from the all-time high price by an percentage equal to the percentage decline from 2005 (shown in parentheses), and indicated same by an n.

I summarize and reach some conclusions below. Without further ado, here's the table:

Metropolitan area
dates inventory median$ Yr-over-yr change/ decline from high
Still Booming:
Salt Lake City, Utah
10/14/2006 2,935 $289,900 +65.8%
10/01/2005 2,721 $174,900
08/14/2005 5,308 $169,000
Raleigh-Durham, NC
10/01/2006 8,927 $229,000 +23.8%
10/01/2005 8,385 $184,900
08/14/2005 8,482 $182,425
Nashville, TN
10/01/2006 6,509 $219,000 +21.7%
10/01/2005 5,002 $179,900
08/14/2005 5,227 $174,000
Austin, Texas
10/01/2006 6,660 $229,999 +16.2%
10/01/2006 8,426 $197,900
08/14/2005 10,041 $190,000
Seattle, Washington
10/14/2006 5,370 $439,000 +12.6%
10/01/2005 4,014 $389,950
08/14/2005 3,808 $384,000
Memphis, Tennessee
10/01/2006 11,163 $169,000 +9.0%
10/01/2005 9,164 $155,000
08/14/2005 9,471 $153,400
Soft landing:
Louisville, Kentucky
10/01/2005 8,265 $158,500 +5.7%
10/01/2005 6,648 $149,900
08/14/2005 6,618 $147,500
Atlanta, Georgia
10/01/2006 46,237 $204,900 +5.6%
10/01/2005 37,519 $194,000
08/14/2005 37,479 $189,900
Denver, Colorado
10/01/2006 26,335 $228,500 +4.1%
10/01/2005 22,155 $219,500
08/14/2005 21,477 $219,900
Indianapolis, Indiana
10/01/2006 15,407 $139,900 +3.7%
10/01/2005 13,493 $134,900
08/14/2005 13,743 $135,000
Cincinnati, Ohio
10/01/2006 11,840 $160,000 +3.3%
10/01/2005 9,430 $154,900
08/14/2005 9,353 $154,900
Chicago, Illinois
10/01/2006 37,740 $299,500 +2.9%
10/01/2005 27,768 $289,900
08/14/2005 29,010 $289,900
San Francisco, CA
10/01/2006 2,755 $749,000 +2.7%
10/01/2005 2,081 $729,000
08/14/2005 1,632 $699,000
Dallas, Texas
10/01/2006 24,299 $149,900 +1.4%
10/01/2005 21,379 $147,900
08/14/2005 22,229 $147,125
Minn.-St. Paul, MN
10/01/2006 18,373 $249,900 -2.0% / -2.0%
10/01/2005 14,069 $254,900 h
08/14/2005 13,170 $254,900 h
Boise, Idaho
10/01/2006 4,554 $282,490 +5.9% / -2.2%
06/21/2006 3,055 $288,960 h
10/01/2005 1,525 $266,790
09/21/2005 1,506 $266,790
Saint Louis, Missouri
10/01/2006 10,754 $181,900 +2.7 / -2.4%
05/14/2006 9,871 $186,415 h
10/01/2005 8,573 $177,184
08/14/2005 8,261 $178,000
Kansas City, MO
10/01/2006 17,113 $175,500 +0.3% / -2.5%
06/21/2006 16,630 $179,950 h
10/01/2005 13,546 $174,900
08/14/2005 13,663 $174,950
Riverside, California
10/01/2006 12,158 $469,000 -0.1% / -3.0%
06/21/2006 10,447 $483,500 h
10/01/2005 5,089 $469,500
08/14/2005 4,158 $475,000
Hard Landing:
Orange, California
10/01/2006 10,355 $619,900 -1.6% / -3.1%
05/01/2006 7,545 $639,900 h
10/01/2005 4,833 $629,900
Oklahoma City, OK
10/01/2006 8,134 $157,500 +5.8% / -3.2% n
08/14/2006 7,818 $159,200
05/14/2006 6,672 $162,900 h
10/01/2005 5,838 $148,900 (-0.1%)
08/14/2005 5,756 $149,900
Albuquerque, NM
10/01/2006 4,059 $269,500 +7.8% / -3.4%
08/14/2006 3,535 $285,000
06/14/2006 2,698 $279,000 h
10/01/2005 1,707 $249,900
08/14/2005 1,889 $228,900
Newport Beach, CA
10/01/2006 4,253 $749,900 -3.5% / -3.5%
12/21/2005 2,532 $734,900 L
10/01/2005 2,814 $779,000 h
Columbus, Ohio
10/01/2006 14,088 $160,000 -1.2% / -3.6%
05/01/2006 13,594 $165,900 h
10/01/2005 11,897 $162,000
08/14/2005 11,991 $164,900
Tucson, Arizona
10/01/2006 9,427 $269,950 -1.9% / -3.6% MEDIAN MARKET
02/01/2006 6,033 $279,900 h
10/01/2005 4,183 $275.000
08/14/2005 3,520 $263,000
Baltimore, Maryland
10/01/2006 9,142 $279,000 +7.3% / -3.8%
08/14/2006 8,733 $285,000
06/14/2006 7,879 $289,900 h
10/01/2005 5,321 $259,900
08/14/2005 4,337 $259,000
Portland, Oregon
10/14/2006 8,895 $354,500 +8.4% / -3.8% n
08/14/2006 7,604 $365,000
05/21/2006 5,199 $371,900 h
10/01/2005 4,769 $327,000 (-0,9%)
08/14/2005 4,241 $329,900
Omaha, Nebraska
10/01/2006 5,229 $179,000 -2.0 / -3.9%
10/01/2005 4,171 $182,595
08/14/2005 3,986 $186,268 h
Newark, New Jersey
10/01/2006 2.031 $335,000 +6.3% / -4.1%
07/07/2006 1,814 $349,500 h
01/01/2006 1.814 $299,900
10/01/2005 1,285 $315,000
Norfolk/VA Beach, VA
10/01/2006 4,362 $357,900 +3.7% / -4.5%
09/01/2006 4,348 $359,900
03/07/2006 1,998 $374,900 h
10/01/2005 1,079 $345,000
09/01/2005 942 $342,000
Boston, MA
10/01/2006 6,767 $428,000 -3.8% / -4.7%
10/01/2005 5,935 $445,000
08/14/2005 4,642 $449,000 h
Houston, Texas
10/01/2006 29,523 $159,950 0.0% / -4.8%
08/14/2005 29,754 $162,000
05/14/2006 25,012 $168,090 h
10/01/2005 26,222 $159,900
08/14/2005 27,732 $159,900
Milwaukee, WI
10/01/2006 7,647 $199,900 -2.4% / -4.8%
10/01/2005 5,633 $204,900
08/14/2005 5,317 $209,900 h
Detroit, Michigan
10/01/2006 30,689 $125,000 -3.8% / -4.8%
06/07/2006 28,403 $131,250 h
10/01/2005 24,220 $129,900
08/14/2005 23,709 $129,900
Philadelphia, PA
10/01/2006 12,927 $189,900 +5.6% / -5.0%
08/14/2006 12,474 $189,900
06/14/2006 11,777 $199,900 h
10/01/2005 9,221 $179,800
08/14/2005 8,010 $175,000
Las Vegas, Nevada
10/01/2006 22,644 $331,888 -5.0% / -5.0%
10/01/2005 11,593 $349,500 h
08/14/2005 16,119 $349,000
Sacramento, CA
10/01/2006 11,449 $375,000 -6.0% / -6.2%
10/01/2005 7,763 $399,000
08/14/2005 6,039 $399,900 h
Cleveland, Ohio
10/01/2006 15,312 $149,900 -3.8% / -6.3%
06/14/2006 14,505 $159,900 h
10/01/2005 12,131 $155,900
08/14/2005 11,936 $159,900
Los Angeles, CA
10/01/2006 20,257 $599,950 -6.1% / -7.7%
01/01/2006 11,329 $599,900 L
10/01/2006 11,593 $639,000
08/14/2005 9,719 $649,999 h
Orlando, Florida
10/14/2006 26,140 $299,900 n/a / -7.7
06/14/2006 22,039 $319,900
01/07/2006 13,533 $324,900 h
Jacksonville, FL
10/01/2006 16,323 $299,500 -6.4% / -7.8%
10/01/2005 6,407 $319,900
09/28/2005 5,634 $325,000 h
08/14/2005 5,635 $310,000
Reno, Nevada
10/01/2006 5,689 $390,000 -4.6% / -8.0%
10/01/2005 3,985 $409,000
09/01/2005 3,617 $423,900 h
Washington, D.C.
10/14/2006 11,790 $459,000 -6.1% / -8.2%
12/21/2005 6,793 $450,000 L
10/01/2005 7,157 $489,000
09/14/2005 5,464 $499,900 h
08/14/2005 5,347 $489,000
Tampa, Florida
10/14/2006 16,508 $259,900 -8.8% / -9.8%
10/01/2005 6,285 $285,000
09/21/2005 5,913 $287,500 h
Crash:
Miami, Florida
10/01/2006 40,363 $379,000 -8.7% / -10.8%
10/01/2005 14,953 $409,000
08/14/2005 12,361 $425,000 h
San Diego, CA
10/14/2006 14,815 $500,000 -7.4% / -11.6%
10/01/2005 10,667 $540,000
09/01/2005 2,281 $565,876 h
08/14/2005 9,656 $545,000
Phoenix, Arizona
10/01/2006 28,280 $335,900 -9.2% / -11.6%
10/01/2005 9.264 $369,900
09/01/2005 7,447 $380,000 h
Cape Coral, Florida
10/01/2006 18,576 $324,900 -7.1% / -12.2%
11/07/2005 4,594 $369,900 h
10/01/2005 7,685 $349,900
09/07/2005 7,199 $343,769
New Orleans, LA
10/01/2006 5,801 $210,000 0.0% / -15.7%
08/14/2006 5,450 $220,000
04/07/2006 3,786 $249,000 h
10/01/2005 3,288 $210,000
08/14/2005 3,250 $205,000

Summary: the 6 booming markets, and 8 of the "soft landing" markets have continued to appreciate; two more are at zero. ALL 33 of the other markets have had price depreciation in the last 2 months.
In June, using the same definitions and methodology as I have above, there were 15 markets Still Booming, 24 in Soft Landing, 10 in Hard Landing, and 3 Crashing.
Now, only 6 are Still Booming, 13 in Soft Landing, 25 in Hard Landing, and 5 Crashing. The median market price decline is now -3.6%, clearly in "hard landing" territory.

In the conclusion to my original diary in June, I said:

It may be that since we are in the midst of a "soft landing" period as applied to the average market, that may continue indefinitely into the future. Possibly by the time the markets still booming end, those markets that have already declined will rebound or at least no longer be in decline.
But ... it's hard to ignore that 1/4 of the markets are still red hot, and 1/4 of the markets have turned ice cold. So... A more ominous observation is that our current situation may be akin to a roller coaster at the top of an incline: the backmost seats are still going up, the middle seats are in equipoise at the top, and the front seats have already started down.

The omens have now come true. Measured from peak prices, more than half of all markets are in a hard landing NOW. The debate is over. The housing boom has not ended in a "soft landing" but a hard one.

This content was created by a Daily Kos Community member.

Make YOUR voice heard!

Housing debate over: hard landing is here, now! (with table)

Comments are closed on this story.