Cook: Dems could pick up 7 senate seats

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Friday October 13, 2006 · 7:46 AM PDT

2006/10/13 · 07:46

Charlie Cook is now reporting that, because of current events and low GOP voter motivation, a seven seat pickup in the Senate is a distinct possibility:

It is no longer far-fetched to see how Democrats could win six Republican seats, or even seven -- which would be necessary for them to gain a majority if they lose one of their own seats...
Four weeks is a lifetime in politics and the tide still could shift. But for Republicans to salvage their majorities in the House and Senate, quite a bit would have to change.

More below the fold, including a house analysis.

Besides the fundamental question of what news and events will dominate voters' minds over the next four weeks -- Iraq and any scandals would favor Democrats, while national security and terrorism would help Republicans -- there is the issue of voter turnout. There are considerable signs that Republican voters are lethargic and disillusioned this year and that Democratic voters are angry and energized. This is evidenced by a new CNN/Opinion Research poll, conducted Oct. 6-8. Among the bigger pool of registered voters, Democrats led Republicans by 16 points on the generic ballot, 54 percent to 38 percent. But among likely voters, the lead was 21 points, 58 percent to 37 percent. The larger Democratic lead among likely voters shows the problem Republicans are having with motivating their base this year.

Of course, as Markos says, GOP GOTV efforts usually kick ass. And while the GOP may have a problem turning out evangelicals as strongly as they did in 2004, the potential is still there.

As for the House, the news is even worse for the GOP, of course

On a more micro level, the Cook Political Report now rates three Republican House seats as leaning toward the Democrats, plus 25 more in the toss-up column. There are no longer any Democratic seats at comparable levels of vulnerability. Fifteen more GOP seats are in the lean-Republican column, bringing the total number of GOP seats in competitive races to 43 (including the three in the lean-Democratic category), with 16 more in the likely Republican column -- not clearly competitive today but worth watching if things remain bad or get worse for Republicans.

In other words, we will see GOP dollars being shifted more and more towards maintaining current seats, rather than trying for pickups. This might explain why folks like Michael Steele are working so hard at trying to raise their own cash from pharmaceutical corps and other big businesses.

Complacent? No. But I am approaching cautious optimism.

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