I'm as guilty as anyone of focusing nearly all of my political attention on the candidates for office, both locally and nationwide. The battle for control of Congress surely deserves to be the main objective for both parties and it certainly will be the deciding factor in determining whether the Bush-Cheney right-wing stranglehold on government will continue or be suppressed during the next two years.
However, an article in today's Washington Post suggests that voting patterns in many places, including some critical races, may come down to ballot initiatives and issues rather than merely the candidates:
(Please join me below the fold for excerpt and more.)
In 2004, Republicans in Ohio and elsewhere tended to benefit from ballot
initiatives. Measures to ban same-sex marriage, for example, passed easily. In the process, some election analysts said, the measures revved the conservative base to help Republican candidates from President Bush on down.
In 2006, Democrats are hoping to prove that ballot politics can work in the other direction. Measures to increase the minimum wage are before voters in six states. Four of those, Arizona, Ohio, Missouri and Montana, feature close Senate races with a GOP incumbent. In Missouri, moreover, a measure backing stem cell research is ahead in the polls -- which Democrats say could lift their candidate.
In Ohio, recent polls show that at least 70 percent of voters support an initiative to raise the minimum wage from $5.15 an hour to $6.85 and index it to inflation. A coalition of labor unions, faith groups and liberal activists is working to pass it. If their efforts also pump up voter turnout for Democrats, Brown said, he is happy for the help.
"Some people will vote because of the minimum wage," Brown said in an interview. "I think it will help bring out voters. I'm guessing those voters will vote for Democrats. It's up to us to make sure they do."
Eight states have ballot measures to ban same-sex marriage, but their impact may be less than in previous years. Few of these states have competitive Senate or House races. And in those that do, such as Virginia and Tennessee, the issue is not as prominent as it was around the country in 2004.
I believe we often don't give the electorate enough credit for serious inquiry into issues. It's true that there is a cadre of voters, maybe a majority, who are single-issue voters, or who just like one candidate more than another for looks or rhetoric or "I'd like to have a beer with that guy." However, perhaps we should look down the ballot for assistance in determining what really motivates the voter in 2006.
I'm not aware of any such issues in my home state of Florida this year, but the elections in other key states very well may be decided not so much by which candidate wins the money battle or the GOTV effort, but rather by which side on a particular issue is best able to energize its supporters.
What issues are especially hot in your states or districts this year? How do you expect them to affect congressional and gubernatorial races? And, most importantly, are voters motivated more this year by voting for a particular candidate or voting on a particular issue - and has that changed over the years?
Comments welcomed below.
(Cross-posted to Blast Off!)