Geez, Bush beat me out in getting rid of Rumsfeld. Didn't even get a chance to predict it. Not too much glory there, though, since virtually everyone was calling for his head. Next, I think Dick Cheney goes, in favor of someone who might conceivably bid for the presidency.
More below the fold
My reasoning on this is that Gates was earlier offered the new Director of Intelligence post, but turned it down. He probably was not offered enough of a free hand. In particular, he probably did not receive assurances that he could overrule Cheney. Now, he has been offered those assurances. We know that White House officials specifically informed the news agencies that Cheney opposed Rumsfeld's firing. This is meant as a statement that Cheney is no longer in charge.
If you're Cheney, why stick around? Your health isn't good, you'll be overruled, and you've become an embarassment. I suspect they're looking for a replacement right now.
And while I'm at it - this offers a big chance for Bush to Work Less Hard. It would be a way to get back at his father - "well, you run things now." He can take as long of vacations at the ranch as he wishes now. He can reduce his briefings per day. He can deliver a State of the Union along the lines of "Ten challenges we face, and I pledge to work with the Congress to face them." He can get out of most overseas trips. I expect we'll read soon of very long Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays at Crawford.
Remember, I don't think Bush gives a fig about his legacy. He's already written it off, and is content that "historians debate presidencies." He doesn't care about a library, book, giving speeches abroad, or founding institutions after his presidency. If he can get a position on the board of a sports agency, preferably baseball, he'll be content.
So, what are your predictions?