This race is
still in play. Schmidt leads by 2,323 votes, with 12,700 provisional ballots still waiting to be counted. Then, if the final tally is within 1 percent, a recount will be possible (especially if the gap has narrowed significantly by that point).
About 12,700 provisional ballots were cast in Hamilton County and 35 percent of those, or about 4,400, are expected to come from 2nd District precincts in the eastern part of the county. Several thousand more are likely to come from precincts in other Southwest Ohio counties covered by the 2nd District, including Clermont and Warren counties.
To win, Wulsin would need to claim a much higher percentage of the provisional votes than the 49.49 percent she took Tuesday night.
"The numbers don't work out for her," Perin said.
Gene Beaupre, a Xavier University political science professor, agreed that Wulsin faces long odds.
"It would be remarkable to make up that margin," he said. "Having said that, there's no reason for her not to try."
And try she will. Barkan said provisional ballots often are cast by voters who have moved, and that those voters are more likely to be young or poor - two factors that could tilt them to Wulsin.
"We have reason to believe these could break for us," Barkan said of the provisional ballots.
When all the votes have been counted, Wulsin could request a recount if the margin is less than 1 percent of the total ballots cast. Right now, it's slightly more than 1 percent.
Burke said a 2,000-vote lead would be much more significant once the provisional ballots are counted.
In OH-15, the margin is 2,835 votes with 41,000 provisional and absentee ballots still outstanding.
In unofficial figures released late yesterday by the Franklin County Board of Elections for the entire 15th District, the Upper Arlington Republican had 100,343 votes and Kilroy had 97,508. Pryce, a seven-term incumbent, gained her margin in Union and Madison counties.
About 21,000 provisional ballots and 20,000 absentee ballots cast in Franklin County and received Monday and Tuesday remain to be counted, with about half of those in the 15th District, according to Franklin County election officials.
Kilroy said those uncounted votes, particularly those in heavily Democratic precincts around Ohio State University, could tilt the balance her way. Kilroy edged Pryce in Franklin County in early returns.
"This race is still on," Kilroy said. "It's not decided yet."
41,000 ballots? Hell yeah this one is still in play.
And in New Mexico, we still don't know who has won in NM-01:
As of this morning, Wilson's lead had stretched to 1,395 votes ahead of Madrid, according to unofficial results compiled by the Associated Press. The incumbent Republican had 102,343 votes to 100,979 for Madrid, the Democratic Attorney General.
Another 2,698 provisional and 1,058 in-lieu-of ballots remained to be counted today.
But if those ballots still fall roughly 50/50 and Wilson holds on to her lead, historians will likely point to the candidates' one televised debate as a turning point.
And the totals from a hand count of another 4,500 paper ballots still hasn't been added to the vote total -- and most of those were in Democratic precincts.
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