2008 will again be all about Ohio, w/ poll

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Monday December 11, 2006 · 6:39 PM PST

2006/12/11 · 18:39

Poor Warren. He wasn’t a bad egg,
Just weak. He loved women and Ohio.

--said by the poet John Ashbery of Warren Harding

First of all allow me to say that I am totally supportive of the 50 state strategy and think this should definitely continue full steam ahead.

However, from all my general reading and my reading on DKos, it seems to me that it will all once again come down to Ohio in 2008. Ohio has played the key bellwether swing state several times in recent history. This includes in the Truman-Dewey race of 1948, the 1976 Carter-Ford race and the 2004 Kerry-Bush race.

Ohio has gone with the winning candidate all but 2 times since 1892, Dewey in 1944 (Ohio Governor John Bricker was VP candidate on Dewey's ticket) and Nixon in 1960. A Rethug candidate has never won without winning Ohio.

If one looks at the state line-up. Any good Democratic Candidate will hold the Northeast (ME, NH, VT, CN, MA, RI, NY, PA, NJ, MD, DC, DE) the Upper Midwest (MI, MN, WI, IL) and the Pacific (CA, OR, WA, HI). If the Democrat were to lose any of these states the election is probably over already.

Likewise the Rethugs will hold the South (AL, MS, GA, FL, TN, KY, LA, AR, TX, SC, NC, VA, OK), the Red Midwest (MO, IN, KS, NB, SD, ND) and the Mountain States (ID, UT, WY, MT, NV, AZ, AK). If the Rethugs lose any of these then the election is likely lost for them (hooray)!

Arguably New Mexico (5), Iowa (7), Colorado (9)might be up for grabs, but if you lost Ohio (20) you would need to win all 3 of the others, and that is a tall order.

OK if pushed one may even bring Virginia (13), West Virginia (5) and Arizona (10) into the mix, but I would argue it would be easier to win Ohio than Virginia, West Virginia or Arizona.

But basically the premise is, if we win Ohio, we win; If we lose Ohio, we lose. It is much easier to just win Ohio then to turn 2-4 of smaller red states to blue in the presidential election.

Therefore with this premise in mind, all attention should be focused by the new Democratic leaders in Ohio (and all of us) to do as much as possible to make sure that there is a fair election there that we will win. Although the State Legislature is still in Rethug hands and any outright legislation would likely be blocked. However, the new Governor, Secretary of State and others must be able to make sure that there is enough machines in everybody's precincts so urban voters do not have to wait long in line and other key changes.

Also with Ohio and only a few other smaller states in play, it seems like we should try to see which of our best candidates would most likely win Ohio. Is there a well liked Dem Ohioan who could be a VP candidate for example? I guess John Glenn is too old, but someone like him who could deliver.

Anyway I thought I would just float this premise out there to see what people thought. Counterviews are only encouraged if the resultant, alternative electoral count allows us to win ;-)

Poll
105 votes Show Results
Which state will be the key 2008 bellwether?

Ohio

Colorado

New Mexico

Arizona

Virginia

West Virginia

Iowa

Other (explain below)

105 votes Vote Now!
Which state will be the key 2008 bellwether?

Ohio

55 votes

Colorado

19 votes

New Mexico

3%

3 votes

Arizona

3%

3 votes

Virginia

12 votes

West Virginia

0%

0 votes

Iowa

2%

2 votes

Other (explain below)

11 votes

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