Alright, I have to admit, I just came back from the Kaine Victory party, and yes, I am a weeee bit tipsy. I earned it. And I just wanted to say a few things before everyone and their mother (hear that, Chris Matthews) joins in the party spinning the national implications of this race.
We didn't win because Bush campaigned with Kilgore. Stop saying that. It's crap.
This is why and how we won, and it's actually much better than you think.
First off, most importantly, top of the list, we underperformed in Arlington County. This is why I was sending testy text messages all day to the campaign and they were sending equally testy messages back with clearly bullshit lines about how the only precints we were underperforming in were ones we want to underperform in. That's clearly false. You don't canvass a neighborhood with five flyers in one day telling them to vote and then NOT CARE when the precint underperforms. But we still fucking won. Which is awesome and so many more levels than Bush campaigning with Kilgore. I'm sure there will inevitably be finger-pointing towards the population growth of the progressive beacon that is Arlington County as to why Kilgore blew it, but the fact is, we underperformed.
So where did those votes come from? Get ready for this....Fairfax Station. Now, to the outsider, this might sound like the same thing as the rest of Nova. But it's not. Democrats don't win in Fairfax Station (or they didn't. GOtta get used to that past tense shit). They don't win in Loudon (hell yeah Poisson). These are those precious Republican exurbs. So if you're drawing your national implications, know this: Republicans lost this race in the exurbs. They lost it in the out subdivisions of Security Moms and Nascar Dads. Hell, I heard a rumor, that I can't confirm, that we won MY district, and that's unpossible.
Holy Shit. I just checked my precint! We won it! That...........I am speechless.....for you VA folks, I vote in 306, aka Great Falls.
Second thing: Mark Warner is bound to receive a lot of attention and credit in the coming days for this election. He deserves every laud. Every DROP of credit that comes his way. If you do not live in Virginia, you cannot understand that Mark Warner is fifty feet tall, and built the Southside University with his bare hands, and then with his mighty axe planted apple trees from which sprung the honor and glory of George Washington and the Alexandria elite. Seriously, if you want proof, if you want beyond the jibber jabber of "Kilgore was a lousy candidate who played the Hitler card", look at Leslie fuckin' Byrne. I do not mean to offend, but Leslie Byrne actually is outside mainstream Virginia values. In a way that I like, but still....the fact that she is currently listed at over 49% is ridiculous. If I were a Republican, this is not just insult to injury, this is devestation apon injury. And I just checked and Creigh Deeds is winning. I love Creigh. I want him to run in 2009. These are long fucking coattails. You don't earn those overnight. You own those by being a miracle worker with our state.
By the way, congratulations, Leslie. Hell of a campaign. You impressed me. And if Creigh wins, then that means Bolling is running in 2009, and he is a much more defeatable candidate than McDonnell.
Third thing: Kilgore played the Hitler card, and that is what changed the tide. This is a complicated thing that I am far too punch-drunk to attempt to fully/coherently explain, but the negative campaign backfired. And Kaine, simultaneously, not only didn't go negative, but ran Smart Growth ads talking about stopping the evil urban sprawl that like Avian Flu will consume us all. He had a vision. Kilgore had Hitler. And thus the election fell.
Last thing: We picked up delegates. Even some surprises. We didn't just win. We won big. It's not just Kaine, though that's all they focused on. We have broken the Republican party. Really, we broke it in 2001 with Mark Warner. I really have to give him credit. First, by winning in 2001, and then by allying himself with the Finance Chair to divide the Republican party in half between the fiscally responsible and the ideologue tax cuts at all cost crowds. They have not recovered, and we have just ensured that they won't for quite sometime. Go ahead. Run Bolling in 2009. Fucking BRING. IT. ON.
And Creigh Deeds is going to win. Check here for the current results. When I last checked (meaning now) it is 50% Creigh, 49.92% McDonnell.
Alright. I am done. Damn, this feels much better than Ohio did last year.
[Update] So, there are four outstanding precints left in the Deeds race. 1 is in Richmond, where we've been running ahead (70-30). 1 is in Petersburg, similar numbers to Richmond. The other two are in James River, which leans Republican, but by a lesser margin. This is going to end up a recount......and no, I am not hung over.