I was going to post this to another thread, but since its about to drop off, and we all know how fast that can happen here on kos, I wanted to make this a new post.
So.. looks like Bush got a 5-6 point bounce outta this so far. Not much, and not nearly as large or as imppressive as people were calling for yesterday, this combined with the predictions that the stock market was going to have a huge day.. (lost 17 points or so) seems like the "experts" weren't on it today very well.
So.. why the minimal impact? And why did Dean drop some in the one head to head we have had since the capture?
I think there are a few diffrent things going on here.
First off the "Saddam Bounce"...
Everyone and thier dentist knew that Bush was going to get SOME kind of bounce out of the Saddam capture, hell it had been looked at as an "October surprise" at one point. However the effect so far politically has been.. mild to say the least.
The main reason I belive this is simple.. a vast majority of people look at this and say.. "great we got him! so.. now what?" Because Saddam was a non player for so long now, the public never really seemed to buy into the "saddam is running the terrorists" idea.. some did for sure, but not a lot. So yeah, Bush got some swing support, but at this name of the game, its minor.. really reallly minor. We have 10-11 months here folks.. you forget how well.. forgetful the american public is. I hope and pray that the WH thinks this makes them a shoe in.. cause as we say down here.. That dog don't hunt.
And now for the second part.. Deans drop in the one poll we have new head to heads in..
Dean dropped (this poll was POST saddam) 6-8 points, but the key I belive is to look where they went.. Bush only went up 1%.. thats it. "Don't know" went up! This people is "soft support" those people who DID feel that while they like Dean, they figured this was Bush's ace in the hole. So .. they say they don't know instead of Dean.
Is this GOOD for Dean? No.. I'll be the first to say its not. Am I worried at all? No.. not at all. As I said earlier.. the American public has one hell of a short memory. Like it or not, when it comes to politics its a lot of "What have you done for me lately?"
So Dean lost some soft swing support to "I Don't know" shrug A major event happens in Iraq, and thats the worse of it? Color me happy.. cause thats squat folks.
Let me end this post with one little cut n' paste.
April 10, 2000
Web posted at: 4:37 p.m. EDT (2037 GMT)
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Texas Gov. George W. Bush now holds a 50 percent to 41 percent lead over Vice President Al Gore among all likely voters if the presidential election were held today, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Monday
Thats 8 points.. as late as April.
So color me unconcerned..