I'm quite confident of a Kerry victory. But late this week, I had some concern after several analyses showed Iowa moving from tossup to Bush.
These analyses were based on the most recent SUSA and Mason-Dixon polls, which showed Bush with a six-point lead.
Looking at the Iowa polls this morning, however, affirms my confidence. (Source: Race2004.net.)
Pollster Date Bush Kerry Nader MoE Kerry
Strategic Vision (GOP) 10/20 48.0 47.0 1.0 3.0 -1.0
Survey USA 10/20 51.0 45.0 --- 3.8 -6.0
Central Surveys 10/19 45.0 46.0 --- 4.0 +1.0
Zogby 10/18 47.9 51.1 0.4 4.1 +2.2
Mason-Dixon 10/18 49.0 43.0 1.0 4.0 -6.0
All polls since 10/18.
Because Nader appears on the Iowa ballot, when a pollster polled both with Nader and without, only the "with Nader" poll was included.
Kerry Leads Most Polls
Of these five polls, Kerry leads in three. (When Kerry is down by only 1 in a Strategic Vision poll, you count that as a lead.)
Bush Short of 50%
Only the SUSA poll shows Bush at better than 50%. Mason-Dixon has Bush at 49%, which, again, considering the source, is a good number. It's reasonable to regard the SUSA number as an outlier.
Notice how much the Central Surveys poll (diaried this morning by GT) changes the complexion of the data set.
Still a Tossup, but...
Based on these surveys, I wouldn't call Iowa for Kerry yet, but I think it's reasonable to assume that Iowa is more likely to fall to Kerry than to Bush.