As a tonic to those who were panicking yesterday about the CNN-Gallup-USA Today Poll, we have today's Rasmussen numbers
, with Bush at 45% and Kerry at 47%. These numbers appear to comport more favorably with the Pew head to head matchup numbers released yesterday and make intuitive sense. Clarke is having an impact, but this election was always
going to be tight. If Bush's ad campaign can't get him a consistent and reliable lead, I suggest that things are looking extremely good for us in November.
Last week, Rasmussen had noted that the Clarke effect had dissipated completely by weeks end. I don't think so. It seems more likely to me that one bad sample had pushed Bush up to unrealistic levels. That sample has since rolled off the moving average, and we have the (albeit small) Kerry lead situation again.
This makes a lot of sense, folks. Think about it. If the Bushies' internal polling didn't show a clear erosion of Bush's numbers on key issues, they never, ever would have flip-flopped on Condiliar testifying. The Bush's actions are the surest evidence of a real Clarke effect, regardless of what one or two private polls say.