War on Iran: the final fiasco

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Wednesday August 16, 2006 · 2:09 PM PDT

2006/08/16 · 14:09

It now appears that Bush and Cheney have determined to attack Iran, no matter what the cost. They may wait until the November election, but they will probably strike well before Bush's term ends. They will do this because they have gambled all their lives and have never been held accountable for losses. They will gamble that Iran will fold in the face of massive American air attacks and that the oil-producing region of Iran can be grabbed and held without invading all of Iran. This gamble will fail and America will suffer serious harm. Here is what I expect will happen.

1. A massive, coordinated air assault on Iran, striking approximately 10,000 targets will inflict extensive, but not decisive, damage on Iran's military and civilian infrastructure. This will cause Iran to strike back with maximum force.

2. Iran will launch long range missile attacks against US ground assets throughout the Persian Gulf, and against Israel. At the same time, Iran will launch precision-guided missile strikes against US ships in the Persian Gulf.

3. Iran will arm the Shia resistance groups in Iraq with state-of-the-art antitank and antiaircraft weapons, and the Shia will attack American forces, possibly cutting off their supply routes.

4. Iran will engage US ground forces attempting to seize oil wells in Khuzistan with Hezbollah-style guerrilla tactics. Much of the oil field equipment will be destroyed.

5. Iran will temporarily succeed in closing the straight of Hormuz, sending oil prices spiralling over $100 per barrel.

6. The US will suffer over a thousand KIA and over ten thousand wounded in the first week of the attack on Iran. After that, daily casualties will be ten times those of the Iraq occupation.

7. The war will sputter on until a Democratic President is elected in 2008. The new President will negotiate a withdrawal from Iran and Iraq and the payment of reparations to both countries. For this, he will be denounced as a traitor and a weakling by "Conservatives."

8. The US economy will plunge into a severe recession, as the oil shock, ballooning budget deficits, and the collapsing dollar lead to a sharp contraction of economic activity. The Federal Reserve will be powerless to restore growth because of inflationary pressures.

10. George W. Bush, Jr. will come to be widely regarded as the worst President in the history of the United States of America.

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