This week Kerry leads Bush by 2.5% and leads the electoral vote 291-247 (Kerry leads in CA, CT, DC, DE, FL, HA, IA, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NY, NM, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI)
Last week Kerry lead by 3% and with the same electoral votes and same states.
This week Bush leads Edwards by 4% and leads the electoral vote 324-214 (Edwards leads in the same states as Kerry except does not lead in FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NM, and OR)
This is a gain for Edwards as he trailed Bush by 4.5% and 376-162 in the electoral vote two weeks ago. His state poll numbers are improving.
MY ANALYSIS: Who leads in electablity in polls is based mainly on who is leading the Democratic primaries at the time. Edwards is gaining fast in the electoral vote as he starts to get press in the primaries. The two electoral vote margins here probably articulate the range that any Democrat will be in vs. Bush and the states listed as for Kerry and not for Edwards at this moment are likely some of the main battleground that this election will hinge on. Basically we must keep the six Gore states that are now listed as for kerry but not Edwards and add FL and NH (the two Nader determinants) [note that NH is one both Kerry and Edwards would take easily right now]. There are other possibilities without FL but they require NV and WV or AZ or OH or MO which neither Kerry or Edwards have now.