Democrats
On paper, Ben Nelson of Nebraska looks like the best choice. His American Conservative Union (ACU) score of 53% makes him the most conservative Democrat in the Senate, and he regularly votes with the Republicans on fiscal and social issues. But if Nelson hasn't switched already, why would he after the 2006 election? He's been elected as Governor and Senator as a Democrat, had a 60% approval rating in the latest Survey USA poll, and is cruising to reelection. Further, he has already been courted by the Republicans and refused "I've never been pushed by the Democrats to leave the Democratic Party. While I have had overtures from Republicans (to switch parties) I've concluded that I'm very comfortable where I am" (MSNBC).
Interestingly, the other Nelson in the Senate, Bill Nelson of Florida, also has a high ACU rating for a Democrat. Yet Nelson often speaks on behalf of Senate Democrats on a number of causes, and has won few friends on the right. He seems about as likely to switch as Harry Reid. So let's rule out everyone named Nelson.
Much discussion has already been devoted to the next switch candidate: Joe Lieberman. If Lieberman wins as an independent, he has promised to caucus with the Democrats. But he needs the votes of the majority of registered Republicans to secure a victory. Already rejected by Democratic primary voters for his support of the Iraq War and continued defense of the Bush Administration, might Lieberman decide to have the last laugh? Possible, but Lieberman still needs a significant number of Democrats to win an election, so it would likely be his last Senate term. On most issues Lieberman fits the voting profile of a NE Democrat, so as a Republican he would be to the left of his caucus on most issues.
Republicans
Again, macro analysis of voting records and the partisan nature of a Senator's state doesn't yield any obvious possibilities. On paper Lincoln Chafee would be the best switch possibility, given both his voting record and the fact that Rhode Island is among the bluest of Blue states. Chafee has publicly flirted with the idea of switching, perhaps just to put his Republican colleagues on notice. But again, if he hasn't switched already (especially after the 2000 election) why would he after the 2006 election? Chafee is in a very tough reelection fight, and currently down in the polls. If he pulls out a victory, it will be in large part to the investment the NRSC has made in the race. He's also alienate all the Republican primary voters who probably grimaced when pulling the lever for Chafee, knowing his much more conservative opponent wasn't electable in Rhode Island. Would even Democrats trust him after such a switch?
By the numbers, Snow (ME), Collins (ME), and Specter (PA) seem the next obvious choices. Moderate Northeast Republicans from Blue states. But again why now? All three already hold committee chairs, so they don't have a lot to gain from switching. All have had an easy time getting reelected, despite a tough primary challenge for Specter in 2004. So no obvious possibilities among Republicans either.
If there are no obvious switchers by the numbers, are there any mavericks that might surprise us?
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