While it may seem like a smart move from our end, the odds of seeing any GOP Senators switch parties is just not likely. Since 1890 only 19 Senators have left a political party while in office. The most recent being Jim Jeffords of Vermont, who as everyone may recall, left the Republican Party to become an independent.
But let's take a look at Jim Jeffords' defection for a moment. Jeffords left the GOP, but never went all the way to the other side. He voted along the party line, but never technically joined up. Why did he do everything, except make it official? Because it would have been political suicide to do so. Though, Jeffords did not run for re-election in 2006, he would have had a tougher road to sow as he would have been painted as a traitor.
Take former Texas Governor John Connally for instance. The former Democrat who was wounded by the same "magic bullet" as JFK, switched to the Republican Party in 1973 to attempt to become Richard Nixon's vice president after Agnew resigned. Connally also ran against Ronald Reagan in the primary and despite raising more money than any other GOP candidate his party flopping caught up to voters and he was soundly defeated.
There have been politicians who have made the switch successfully, Strom Thurmond comes to mind, but it isn't a popular move. Politicians see a switch as a sign of weakness. In a town where the idea of loyalty means everything, a party flopper is viewed as a social pariah - one who can't be trusted.
As for the current handful of Senators that some are suggesting jump ship, I just don't see it in the cards. Here is a breakdown of what I see as the flaw in the argument for a switch:
Chuch Hagel - Nebraska:
Guys, seriously. Do you really think that this guy is going to buck all of the party platforms of the GOP he supports, just because of Iraq? I know he is considering running for President, but how much support will he get from the Republican voters if he leaves? How much support will he get from Democratic voters if he arrives with all his socially and economically conservative positions?
Arlen Specter - Pennsylvania
This is likely to be Specters last go-around in the Senate. He's been there since 1980 and is suffering from Hodgkin's Disease. He is the ranking GOP member on the Judiciary committee and with a position that high, why would he want to bolt? Fun fact though, Specter was on the Warren Commission.
Olympia Snowe - Maine
No matter how blue Maine is, Snowe has no need to switch right now. Snowe was just reelected in 2006 and as a pro-choice moderate, has every reason not to sweat out any pressure from home.
Susan Collins - Maine
Snowe's counterpart in the Senate may be more likely to be enticed into switching, but would not gain anything from it. If Collins switched to the Democratic Party today, she would have to deal with an extremely tough primary challenge from Rep. Tom Allen, who seems to be gearing towards a challenge her for the seat in 2008.
If any of these Senators do come to our side, that would be absolutely euphoric. It would mean we could kick Lieberjerk to the curb. But I would seriously not hold my breath, party switching in the Senate is rare and the consequences for any future political aspirations for the Senator is dim.
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