NJ-07: Another Republican Congressman Calls It Quits

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Monday November 19, 2007 · 10:38 AM PST

2007/11/19 · 10:38

Last night I discussed the possibility that 2008 could be another huge Democratic year. On the Congressional level, one factor that wasn’t in our favor in 2006 but appears to be going our way is Republican retirements. Big Congressional pick-ups are usually helped by winning numerous open seats. In 2006 we won most of the competitive open seats, but there were far fewer competitive open seats than there had been when the Republicans flipped 22 open seats in 1994.

This time around, expect to see the Republicans defending many more open seats. Most Republican members of Congress never served in the minority, or are quite old. Serving in the House minority doesn’t offer many perks of power. It’s hard to get amendments passed, and there are far fewer opportunities to advance legislation or force compromise than in the Senate. Thus, it’s not a surprise that through last week 16 House Republicans had already announced their retirements.

Today, the number of House Republican retirements rose to 17, as New Jersey Republican Mike Ferguson joined the list. This one is a big surprise, as Ferguson had only been in the House since 2001, and he’s only 37. Spanning the central part of the state, NJ-07 is one of the most evenly matched districts in the country, and in 2006 Ferguson barely held off Netroots candidate Linda Stender,winning by less than 2 points. Stender is running again, so maybe Ferguson just looked at the political landscape and figured that he wouldn’t be in Congress in 2009, so why go through the hassle of running a losing campaign. But with his obvious ambition and smattering of controversy and accusations, maybe there’s more to the story than wanting to spend time with his children.

Whatever the reason for Ferguson’s unexpected retirement, the odds of a significant Democratic gain to our Congressional majority just got even better.

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