1st Post-Debate Poll Results

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Friday November 02, 2007 · 9:12 AM PDT

2007/11/02 · 09:12

Many has speculated that Hillary Clinton might suffer in the polls following the most recent debate. Others claim that it would have no effect or she might even benefit. What does the first data say? See below the fold.

As many of you know, Rasmussen has a daily poll. The following indicates how the three top candidates performed on the first two nights following the debate. The numbers in parentheses indicate the polling results for the prior two nights (before the debate)

Clinton: 45 (40)
Obama: 18 (24)
Edwards: 12 (10)

In other words, in the first two nights after the debate, Hillary increased her lead (compared to the previous two nights) over Obama by by 11 points (from 16 to 27 points) and over Edwards by 3 points (from 30 to 33 points).

Several caveats are in order, all mentioned in the article on this by Rasmussen. First, there is a 5% MOE, so this could in part be due to statistical noise. Secondly, sometimes there are long-term shifts after debates that aren't reflected in the first few days. And third, it's always possible that reactions in particular high-profile states (such as Iowa or New Hampshire) can be different than those nationally.

As of yet, though, it appears that this debate, like previous debates, has actually helped Hillary consolidate her lead.

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