The conventional wisdom is that a win in Iowa gives a 15 point boost in New Hampshire, and a win in both Iowa and New Hampshire gives a 30 point boost nationally. In other words, whoever wins those two states has a virtual lock on the nomination. However, I think things are a bit different this year.
First, as others have pointed out, Hillary has many of the advantages of incumbency. She has 100% name recognition, tons of institutional support, more money on hand than any Democrat has ever had (as Obama has too), and, according to opinion polls, the most loyal supporters of any of the Democratic candidates.
Secondly, several other states are part of the early voting calendar. Both Nevada and Michigan are voting before South Carolina, and Florida is voting shortly thereafter. And, no matter what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire, Hillary is looking very solid in Nevada, Michigan, and Florida. It's true that the delegates for Michigan and Florida may not be seated (unless that decision is overturned at the convention), but, heck, Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina don't have many delegates anyway. For the first few states, it's all about momentum and media, rather than delegates. And wins by Hillary in Nevada, Michigan, and Florida -- even if Obama wins the the other three early states and even if he successfully keeps his name off the Michigan ballot -- will be enough to force the media to see this as a real horse race going into Super Tuesday, February 5.
On February 5, a total of 2064 delegates will be chosen. That's nearly 15 times as many as will have been selected in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina combined (140). In fact, New York alone will have twice as many as Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Caroline combined. I consider Hillary to have a virtual lock on Califonia, New York, and Jersey -- in other words, the largest, second largest, and fourth largest states voting that day. These three states alone combine for 848 delegates, or more than 40% that will be chosen that day. If Obama wins Illinois and the rest of the states split 50-50, Hillary will come out with a big lead for the day and a big lead for all the delegates chosen to date. Combine that with her expected lead for the 852 Superdelegates, and she'll be practically a shoe-in for the nomination.
Don't get me wrong--I don't expect Hillary to lose Iowa, New Hamphsire, and South Carolina. Maybe she'll lose one, or even two of those, but I don't expect her to lose all three. However, even if she were to lose all three, I would still consider her a favorite for the nomination. Because Nevada, Michigan, Florida, and, more importantly, California, New York, and New Jersey are solidly in her camp, and I don't expect anything that happens in Iowa, New Hampshire, and/or South Carolina to change that.
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