I will discuss Hillary's multiple paths to victory below. But first I will review three main factors that shape this analysis.
1. Advantages of Perceived Semi-Incumbency
In the past, many people who have lost early races have then crumbled (think Dean). Other people who have lost early on, such as Mondale, have recovered. I believe that those who think that Hillary's support is totally based on the idea of "inevitability," and will thus crumble if she starts to lose, are mistaken. Rather, because she is viewed almost as an incumbent (due to her active role in the Clinton administration of 1992-2000), she enjoys several great advantages that will help her fight over the long haul. First, she has more money on hand than any Democrat has ever had at this stage (Obama is similarly well placed in this regard.) Second, she has universal name recognition. Third she has great loyalty of Democratic support; she is viewed favorably by huge numbers of Democrats and most polls indicate that her supporters are least likely to jump to other candidates. Fourth, she has strong institutional support from Democratic politicians and officials. Fifth, following from this last point, she has about a 2-1 lead over Obama in declared Super Delegates, which make up some 15% of the entire delegate pool. All of these advantages will help her stay strong over the long haul.
2. The Media
Hillary has taken some hits from the media recently, but the bottom line is that the media loves a horse race. And they have a great horse race right now in the Obama-Clinton contest. The media is going to milk that contest to the very end. That means they won't fully give up on Clinton (or Obama for that matter) until it's absolutely over.
3. The Calendar
Early parts of the calendar are unfavorable to Hillary, with the emphasis on caucus states (that tend to hold down turn out, especially among fewer low-income voters) and states that allow independent voters (who are tending toward Obama, while Hillary wins majority of Democratic voters). Some of the early states also lack constituent groups that are strong for Hillary, such as Latinos, Asian-Americans, and Jews. However, the calendar starts to get friendlier as the campaign goes on, as more states kick in that are based on primaries or that only include Democratic voters. She will certainly win Michigan and has a huge lead Florida, where Jews, Latinos, retirees, and transplanted New Yorkers all play a disproportionate role. That means even if she loses the first two states, she is almost certain to win at least 2 of the next 4 (and the two largest of the next six). They may or may not count for delegates, but remember what I said about the media earlier. If Hillary wins Michigan and then Florida -- the last state before Super Tuesday and a very important one in U.S. politics -- there is no way that the media will give her a death sentence, no matter what happens elsewhere.
(Some of you may think this is "unfair" or "spin", because the DNC has removed delegates from these states and several candidates have dropped off the Michigan ballot. But remember--what is "fair" is winning the most delegates overall. The rest of this analysis assumes that Hillary will do very well in the following states, which have large populations. Winning those states is what it's all about.)
OK, now let's go to the rest of the calendar. On Super Tuesday, 22 states vote to select 2064 delegates, more than 10 times the delegates that will have been chosen in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Michigan combined -- and some 55% of all the delegates chosen through primaries and caucuses in this election. Hillary has electoral leads in almost those states, and huge leads in the largest (California), the second largest (New York), and the fourth largest (New Jersey). Those three states alone have five times the delegates of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Michigan combined. All three are primaries. California allows independents to vote, but Hillary is hugely popular there, widely endorsed, and the state is great for her demographically (large numbers of Latinos, Jews, Asian Americans, and gays). California will start early voting on January 7, and a high percentage of the population votes by mail. Hillary also should be considered a virtual lock in New York and New Jersey. Thus if she goes into Super Tuesday with any viability -- which is virtually assured due to the factors mentioned above, she is highly likely to win the day and thus the nomination.
OK, now let's review her multiple paths to victory. Remember, the order of early votes is:
Iowa (caucus), Jan. 3 caucus
New Hampshire (primary), Jan. 8
Michigan (primary), Jan. 15
Nevada (caucus), Jan. 19
South carolina (primary), Jan. 26
Florida (primary), Jan. 29
Super Tuesday (22 states), Feb. 5
Path 1: Win Iowa
Hillary has a number of strengths in Iowa, including strong support among elder voters and more spread out support throughout the state than Obama has. She has a good chance to win Iowa and then run the table. If Edwards comes in first and she comes in second, that's also not a bad result for Hillary.
Path 2: New Hampshire fallback
It looks now that if Obama wins Iowa, he'll likely win New Hampshire too. But that is far from guaranteed. His support in New Hampshire depends on strong independent turnout, and that is hard to predict given that they can also vote Republican if they wish. The Clintons also have a strong statewide network in New Hampshire. If Hillary does pull a comeback win in New Hampshire, she's likely to run the table and win the election.
Path 3: Lose the first two and win the rest
Clinton will win Michigan which won't mean much, but will change the media narrative a bit. She has a big lead in Nevada and could win then win that state, win South Carolina, and continue on from there.
Path 4: Michigan, Nevada, Florida, and Super Tuesday
Let's say she wins loses the first two and South Carolina. Still, after winning Michigan and Nevada (which proceed South Carolina) and Florida (which follows it), it will be 3-3 with Hillary having won the two largest states. She is favored on Super Tuesday and wins easily.
Path 5: Michigan, Florida, and Super Tuesday
Even if she wins nothing else but Michigan and Florida, she still has won the two largest and most important (for a general election) of the first six states. She also has won the third largest state in the country and one of the politically most important states for presidential elections, Florida, which is the last state to vote before Super Tuesday. She goes into Super Tuesday with a bit of momentum and wins big there.
Now, you might consider any one of these paths unlikely. But, when you add up lots of different possibilities, your odds multiply. These multiple paths to victory give her a big overall advantage.
Finally, there is no implication here about who people should vote for. Just an analysis of how the race might unfold. I'll leave my commentary on why I think Hillary deserves our support for other diaries (and yes, I have explained that previously as have others who share my opinion.)
Thanks for reading, and I look forward to your comments.
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