Again, for each GOP candidate, in the margin column I've bolded the race that would give us the best margin of victory.
PPP poll results (.pdf)
| GENERAL | ELECTION | MATCH-UPS |
| Democrat | Republican | Margin |
| Clinton 39% | Giuliani 46% | Lose by 7% |
| Obama 43% | Giuliani 46% | Lose by 3% |
| Edwards 48% | Giuliani 43% | Win by 5% |
| | |
| Clinton 42% | Romney 46% | Lose by 4% |
| Obama 42% | Romney 45% | Lose by 3% |
| Edwards 52% | Romney 40% | Win by 12% |
| | |
| Clinton 42% | Huckabee 48% | Lose by 6% |
| Obama 42% | Huckabee 47% | Lose by 5% |
| Edwards 50% | Huckabee 43% | Win by 7% |
So, what does that translate to in graphical form? Visually, it becomes quite obvious.
Fortunately, the PPP poll provides demographic breakdowns like SurveyUSA always provides, so I can do additional some analysis.
What was the most interesting was the gender breakdown. First, when looking at just North Carolina men, the Republicans lead in every single matchup. In fact, the only time the GOP candidate doesn't get at least 50% of the male vote is when John Edwards is the Democratic nominee. He holds Rudy to 49% of the male vote, and Romney to 46%. But Huckabee still gets 51%. So basically, North Carolina men overall are going Republican.
So how can we possibly hope to take North Carolina back, or at least make it competitive? Well, take a look at how North Carolina women would vote. The findings may surprise you.
| GENERAL | ELECTION | MATCH-UPS |
| Democrat | Republican | Margin |
| Clinton 44% | Giuliani 41% | Leads by 3% |
| Obama 46% | Giuliani 41% | Leads by 5% |
| Edwards 55% | Giuliani 38% | Leads by 17% |
| | |
| Clinton 47% | Romney 41% | Leads by 6% |
| Obama 47% | Romney 38% | Leads by 9% |
| Edwards 58% | Romney 35% | Leads by 23% |
| | |
| Clinton 48% | Huckabee 42% | Leads by 6% |
| Obama 46% | Huckabee 42% | Leads by 4% |
| Edwards 57% | Huckabee 36% | Leads by 21% |
Hillary doesn't do the best. Actually, by FAR, Edwards consistently does the best here.
Also consistently, Edwards gets over 10% of Republicans to cross over and vote for him, while Hillary can't get more than 7% support from them. Obama does OK too, getting 13% of Republicans when matched up with Romney, but only 9% against Huckabee. Sadly, in almost every matchup, over 10% of Democrats would vote for the Republican candidate, except in the Edwards-Romney matchup, when only 9% of Democrats would vote for Romney.
In what may surprise people, Hillary actually does the best among young voters (here defined as 18- to 29-year-olds), getting between 64%-66% of their support. Edwards actually performs the "worst" here, getting only 55% of their support against Rudy, and 57% against Romney. Against Huckabee, he's also at 66%, which matches the highest levels Hillary got too. Obama splits the difference, getting between 58%-61% support from the youth, depending on who the GOP candidate is.
And as mentioned before, the margin of victory is also crucial in that it needs to be greater than the GOP's margin for theft, chicanery, and voter suppression. Did you guys really think the GOP is gonna suddenly stop intimidating black voters or shredding registration forms? I don't think so. A 3-point lead can be stolen, and nobody bats an eyelash, because it was all within the margin of error. But if the polls show our candidate up by double digits, and they lose, most Americans WOULD bat an eyelash over those results.Again, these polls are just a snapshot in time, things can change, yadda, yadda, yadda. You know the spiel by now. :-)
Update: Since Gallup redesigned their website, their old link to name recognition changed, and so in my earlier diaries from October, which I can't seem to edit anymore, it's now a broken link. The new link is here, which shows all three of our frontrunners have pretty high name recognition nationally.
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