Clinton: The Real Reason She May Yet Lose

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Sunday December 09, 2007 · 10:35 AM PST

2007/12/09 · 10:35

Any of the following might be considered a good reason why she may not win -- either in the primaries or in the general; but they aren't the real reason.

In the primaries...

It's not just about her vote on the Iraq war.
Honestly? You can't really count on how much of an issue Iraq will be a year from now.

It's not that she's "un-electable."
After all, a lot depends on your opponent. Besides, we picked the electable guy the last time; how's that working out for us?

It's not that she's too much of a corporatist.
...or too conservative or too much like Bush yadda yadda yadda. She has always treated her campaign as a general election campaign which means she believes there's no real upside to being specific about her platform. Winners rarely are.

In the general election campaign...

It's not that she's "too divisive."
That kind of talk blames the victim for the crime.

It's not she's part of some dynastic cult.
We wouldn't be having this conversation if the Supreme Court hadn't stuck its nose where it didn't belong.

It's not that she's a woman.
Of course men won't vote for her -- but they don't vote for any Democrat.

It's not that she's over-stating her experience.
I hear that high-powered women executives turn their nose up at her, because they think she is a corner-cutting, self-aggrandizing opportunist, trading on her husband's reputation. Frankly, if her name was Hillary Smith I believe she'd still be a very credible candidate simply based on her Senate career to date.

No, it's none of that. To understand why Hillary may lose, let's look at the recent past:

Shorter Bill Clinton (c. 1992): "Don't stop thinking about tomorrow."

Shorter Bill Clinton (c. 1996): "The bridge to the 21st century."

Shorter Hillary Clinton (c. 2008): "Party like it's 1993!"

That is why she may, in the end, lose the nomination -- and, if she's the nominee, perhaps the election itself.

What do you think?

Poll
95 votes Show Results
Which of the following is the REAL REASON that will cause Hillary to lose (either in the primaries or in the general)?

Her vote on the Iraq war.

She's un-electable.

She's a corporatist.

She's part of a dynastic cult.

She's a woman.

She's over-stating her experience.

She's too divisive.

She can't stop thinking about yesterday.

Other

95 votes Vote Now!
Which of the following is the REAL REASON that will cause Hillary to lose (either in the primaries or in the general)?

Her vote on the Iraq war.

7%

7 votes

She's un-electable.

9%

9 votes

She's a corporatist.

17 votes

She's part of a dynastic cult.

3%

3 votes

She's a woman.

8%

8 votes

She's over-stating her experience.

3%

3 votes

She's too divisive.

21 votes

She can't stop thinking about yesterday.

20 votes

Other

7%

7 votes

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