Clinton opens wide lead in Southern states (including N. Carolina)

Geekesque

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Monday February 26, 2007 · 9:00 AM PST

2007/02/26 · 09:00

Caveat: 'Undecided' leads the race by a wide margin. Gore/Clark fans may commence fighting over that vote.

Caveat II: I'm also unsure of Elon University and its methodology, so this poll could be suspect.

That said, let's look at the results, and what they do and don't tell us.

Here is the link to the Data and methology.

Basics:

Interviews were completed with 719 adults from households in these five states (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia). For a sample size of 719, there is a 95 percent probability that our survey results are within plus or minus 3.7 percent (the margin of error) of the actual population distribution for any given question.

Numbers below the fold . . .

Good news for Democrats:

Which party will you likely support in the next presidential election? (open ended, skip)
Percent
Democrat 42.0
Republican 31.4
Too early to tell (v) 12.1
Other (v) 7.2
Don't Know (v) 6.5
Refused (v) .7
Total (719) 100.0

Good news for Clinton, disappointing news for Obama, bad news for Edwards:

(A) Which Democratic candidate are you planning to support at this time? (open ended) (asked only of those saying Democratic party)
Percent
Hillary Clinton 30.1
Barack Obama 13.9
John Edwards 7.9
Al Gore .3
Joseph Biden .7
Bill Richardson .7
Chris Dodd .7
Too early to tell 23.5
Other candidate .3
Don't Know 21.5
Refused .3
Total (302 ; +/-5.75) 100.0

Clinton's support was consistent in 4/5 states, with South Carolina being the outlier (with a small sample size):

Democratic candidate support at this time according to the state lived in
What state do you live in? Total
Florida Georgia North Carolina South Carolina Virginia
Hillary Clinton 32.2% 29.4% 32.4% 16.7% 27.3% 29.7%
Barack Obama 13.3% 29.4% 9.5% 16.7% 13.0% 14.3%
John Edwards 7.8% 5.9% 13.5% 5.6% 3.9% 7.8%
Al Gore 1.1% .3%
Joseph Biden 2.9% 1.4% .7%
Bill Richardson 1.1% 1.3% .7%
Chris Dodd 1.1% 1.3% .7%
Too early to tell/ Don't Know 42.2% 32.4% 43.2% 61.1% 51.9% 45.1%
Other candidate 1.1% 1.3% .7%
Total (293 ; +/-5.84; excludes those who refused to answer) 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
(subsample of only those declaring support for Democratic party)

The large number of undecideds make for a great deal of wiggle room on these numbers, of course.

And the fact that it was an open-ended question--as opposed to one where they read off all the names--raises my eyebrows as well. This could be a function of name-recognition itself

Still, this is a sign of considerable strength for Clinton. Obama would hope for better, of course. Edwards can't be encouraged with the poor showing--especially in North Carolina itself--where his name recognition shouldn't be an issue.

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