I spent an hour or so on Wikipedia and the White House Past Presidents Site to investigate the pre-election experience of the 42 past presidents of the U.S. (there are actually 43 listed, but that Grover Cleveland twice as he served two non-consecutive terms). It turns out that all 42 followed one of the following four paths to the White House.
- A former governor
- A cabinet member (including Vice-President)
- A major military leader
- Having completed one or more full terms in Congress (Senate or House)
There is not a single exception to this in the history of the United States. See my listing of all 42 U.S. presidents below.
Obama was elected to the Senate in 2004. If he assumes office in January 2009, he'll still be two years short of completing his first term in the Senate. He would thus be the first U.S. president in 220 years of U.S. presidential history who did not serve as a governor, cabinet member, or major military leader, or complete at least one full congressional term.
(Interestingly, Giuliani also breaks this historical tradition, though I suppose that many would consider his role as mayor of New York has equivalent to that of a governor, since the population of New York is larger than all but 8 states, and he also served as U.S. Attorney. In any case, we all know that Giuliani will not be elected President!)
(An interesting related question might be the types of experience of major party nominees for the presidency. I expect that they, too, almost all had the four types of experience listed above. However, I didn't investigate his matter.)
Obama's staff and supporters are touting many other aspects of his experience, including his role in the state legislature and in community organizing. My reading of the former presidents' bios indicated that many of them, like Obama, also had leadership roles in state government or the non-govermental sector too. However, in all of their cases, bar none, these types of experiences were combined with one of the four types of experience listed above.
Another avenue that Obama could take is a call for change, for bringing in somebody with alternative background and experience. His ability to do this, however, is partially mitigated by his present employment in Washington. More importantly, though voters very much want change, they also seem to want professionalism, competence, and experience in this round. They know that George Bush came in as a supposed outsider, and that his lack of competence proved disastrous. They may not have any particular reason to doubt Obama's competence -- he does have an extremely impressive resume -- but they know that he hasn't proven himself in the same ways that are usually expected of people running for president.
He can also call attention to his judgment, and particularly the anti-war vote he gave on Iraq. Yet for the 70+% of the population which also supported the AUMF in 2002, this is not likely to hold much sway, and even many of those who opposed the AUMF don't see this as a critical issue. He'll have to instead demonstrate that he is more capable of handling this and other foreign and domestic affairs issues today (and he can of course draw on his past judgment in making that argument).
Obama also has the obstacle of going up against somebody who is widely seen as being extremely experienced. As of today, Hillary has been in the Senate about 2.5 times as long as Obama. She plays an important role on the Senate Armed Services Committee. And, in most people's eyes, she played a prominent role in the two Clinton administrations. (Many people on this list denigrate that experience, either by pointing to her as "Bill Clinton's housewife" or by noting the failure of her health care initiative. However, it appears that the general public does not write off Hillary's White House experience in the same way that her critics on this list do.) She is also seen, by supporters and critics alike, as somebody who is extremely competent. In an election cycle when experience and competence are valued, she thus has a great advantage.
The bottom line: I don't think Obama will be able to overcome people's evaluation of his experience, especially in contrast to that of Hillary, and that will likely be an important factor preventing him from winning the nomination.
Former Presidents and their Pre-Presidential Experience
G. W. Bush, 1.5 terms as Texas governor
Clinton, 2 terms as Arkansas governor
G. Bush, 2 terms in congress, UN Ambassador, Director of CIA, etc.
Reagan, 2 terms as California governor
Carter, 1.5 terms as Georgia governor
Ford, 12+ terms in Congress, House Minority Leader
Nixon, Congressman, Senator, Vice President
Johnson, Congressman, 2-term Senator, Senate Majority Leader, Vice President
Kennedy, Congressman, 1+ terms as Senator
Eisenhower, Supreme Allied Commander in Europe in WWII, NATO Commander
Truman, 2 term Senator, Vice President
Roosevelt, Senator, Secretary of Navy, Governor of New York
Hoover, Secretary of Commerce in two administrations
Coolidge, Mass. Governor
Harding, Ohio Lieutenant Governor and 1 term as Senator
Woodrow Wilson, New Jersey Governor
Taft, Secretary of War
T. Roosevelt, New York Governor
McKinley, 7 terms in Congress, 2 terms as Ohio Governor
Cleveland, New York Governor
Harrison, General in Civil War, 1 term as Indiana Senator
Arthur, Vice President
Garfield, 9 terms in Congress
Hayes, Congress, 3 terms as Ohio Governor
Grant, Commander of Union Forces in Civil War
Johnson, Military Governor of Tennessee, Vice President
Lincoln, Congress, a founder of Republican Party, nationally-known critic of slavery expansion
Buchanan, 5 terms Congress, 1+ term Senate
Pierce, 2 terms Congress, Senate
Fillmore, Congress, Vice President
Taylor, Military Leader in Mexican-American War
Polk, Congress, Tennessee Governor
Tyler, Congress, Virginia Governor, Vice President
Harrison, Governor of the Indiana Territory, Congress, Senate
Van Buren, Senate, Secretary of State
Jackson, Military Leader, Military Governor of Florida, Senate
J. Q. Adams, Senate, Secretary of State
Monroe, Senate, Secretary of War, Secretary of State
Madison, 4 terms Congress, Secretary of State
Jefferson, Virginia Governor, Secretary of State
J. Adams, Vice President
Washington, Leader of the Continental Army in the U.S. Revolutionary War
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