The Great Party Switch of 2008?

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Tuesday July 17, 2007 · 6:44 AM PDT

2007/07/17 · 06:44

Looking at this excellent front-page post on the GOP's woes going into 2008, it occurs to me that most Republicans have a pretty darned tough row to hoe electorally.

Chris Bowers at OpenLeft further delineates their dilemma: In order to hold the GOP's base (which aside from Bush's immigration bill -- which they have rationalized as Ted Kennedy's -- rabidly backs The Resident), they have to back the war in Iraq. But in order to win independent voters, they have to oppose the war in Iraq.

Bottom line: You can appeal to the base, or you can appeal to the indies and the swing voters. But you CANNOT do both.

It just occurred to me that for many Republicans, there's really only one way out of this dilemma that preserves their careers: Switching parties.

It's not that crazy a concept.

Look at how the DCCC and DSCC are just kicking the NRCC and NRSC's asses in fundraising. That hasn't happened in -- hell, I don't think ever, at least not since the dawn of modern electioneering four decades ago. Usually, Republican candidates are about two to three times more loaded than ours are. This cycle, it's the other way around -- and not just because Tom DeLay's and Jack Abramoff's K Street Project's been destroyed.

So, you've got Republican candidates who because of their base must stay welded to a horrifically unpopular Resident and his policies, and with half the cash of their likely Democratic opponents. Many of these Republicans are looking at the grim prospect of having to find a career outside of politics.

The easiest way around all of this? Switching parties.

Granted, I don't think that very many will -- maybe a handful of Congresscritters at the most, and maybe (just maybe) a Senator or two. Fear of the national party's capacity for revenge will keep most of them in line. But don't be surprised to see some switching anyway.

(Also posted at Mercury Rising.)

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