The WaPo states it simply: Three Top Democrats Share Lead In Iowa Poll
We see stuff all the time about 'ties' that are really three candidates barely within the margin of error. How close is it, really?
In the poll, 27 percent said they would vote for Obama, 26 percent for Clinton and 26 percent for Edwards. The only other Democrat to register in double digits was Bill Richardson, the governor of New Mexico, at 11 percent. Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Del.) and Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (Ohio) trailed at 2 percent, and Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (Conn.) at 1 percent.
Perhaps it's time to invoke the 'margin of error' rule--if you can't outpoll the margin of error, stop wasting everyone's time and a lot of people's money. Except for Kucinich, because we need a gadfly in there to keep 'em honest.
Second choices were also neck and neck--indicating that this really a three-way battle instead of a "everyone against Hillary" showdown:
Iowa Democrats were also asked to name a second choice. When those results were combined with first choices, the race remained equally tight, with each of the three leading candidates being the first or second choice of about half of those surveyed.
Though it's good to remember just how much polls matter at this point:
In the 2004 Iowa caucus day poll by the National Election Pool, 42 percent of caucus-goers said they made up their mind in the last week of the campaign. Just 30 percent made their final decision more than a month before caucus day.
The poll also had some bad news for Hillary (besides having Obama tied with her):
Overall, about half of likely caucus-goers expressed a preference for what Obama is claiming to offer, which is a new direction and new ideas, while 39 percent prioritized strength and experience. Among those who are looking for new ideas and a new direction, 37 percent supported Obama, 31 percent Edwards and 15 percent Clinton. Among those who cite strength and experience, Clinton had a wide lead, with 38 percent saying they would vote for her, and Edwards second at 21 percent. Obama and Richardson trailed with 14 percent each.
Yeeeoww! Apparently the diplomacy debate crystalized who represents change and who doesn't. Of course, Obama needs to do more to boost his 'strength and experience' standing--which this most recent foreign policy speech may or may not have done--if the issue is strength. People who prioritize experience first ain't gonna vote for him. What's more important to him is getting people to value change or judgment over experience.
Conversely, Clinton needs to distance herself from the past much better than she has been doing. Ready to lead? People believe her. Change? Nope, they're not buying it. Talking about the Cold War and nukes with regard to Afghanistan and Pakistan doesn't help matters.
There are some numbers that are going to make supporters of each candidate bang their heads on their keyboards:
Thirty-five percent of likely caucus attendees rated her the most electable in the Democratic field, with Obama and Edwards in the low 20s.
Clinton also had an edge as the candidate "best able to handle the situation in Iraq," which could prove critical in the caucuses. Nearly nine in 10 likely caucus-goers in this poll said the Iraq war was not worth fighting, with the overwhelming majority saying so "strongly."
But Clinton rated well below the other top contenders on two important personal attributes. Just 14 percent of those surveyed called her the most likable Democrat in the field, and an equally low percentage said she is the most honest and trustworthy.
Clinton as the most electable and best on Iraq? Well Obama and Edwards supporters must be shaking their heads. On the other hands, 'likability' must seem like a trivial concern to Clinton supporters.
Obama will need young and first-time caucusers to turn out for him:
Among Iowa voters younger than 45, Obama has the advantage -- 39 percent, compared with 24 percent for Clinton and 22 percent for Edwards. Among those age 45 and older, Clinton and Edwards were tied at 28 percent, with Obama trailing at 18 percent. Four years ago, these older-than-45 voters made up two-thirds of all caucus participants.
In this poll, 31 percent of likely caucus-goers said the upcoming caucuses will be their first. Half of those younger than 45 said this would be their first time out. Converting interest into commitment among younger voters is one big challenge facing Obama's team.
Other upside-down results:
Clinton wins greater support among women than men and more support among those earning less than $50,000 annually than those who earn more, similar to patterns in national polls. Edwards, who has positioned himself as the most liberal of the top three candidates, trails Clinton and Obama among liberals in Iowa.
And Iowans are already extremely wired into this race. Check these crazy numbers out:
The poll provides stark evidence of how intense the early campaigning has been. The 71 percent of voters who have already received a telephone call from one of the campaigns is about equal to the percentage of likely caucus-goers who reported getting called in December 2003, the month before the 2004 caucuses.
The portion having already attended one or more campaign events, 40 percent, is up somewhat from that time, and the percentage donating money to one of the candidates is about as high. A third of likely voters have already received e-mails from a campaign, and a third have visited a candidate's Web site.
Buckle up.
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