To answer my own question , i think Obama is definitely the one candidate that has the name recognition and cross over appeal to do so , BUT to make it happen , i think he would need Bloomberg...Not because of issues or experience , but because of the large amount of money he'd be able to spend on behalf of the ticket so Obama could run a 50 state strategy.
I dont know whether Bloomberg would want to be Obama's VP but i'd hope he would understand that Obama has better name recognition then he does and it would serve the ticket better to have Obama be the front-face instead of Bloomberg.
Here's how the general election ticket would look like:
McCain(R)...Obama(I)...Hillary(D)
I think the prefered republican candidate for a Obama/Bloomberg ticket would be Huckabee or Romney because they both are seen to be too far to the right and would not be able to draw votes from the center.
On the Democratic side , Hillary would definitely be the prefered candidate of a Obama/Bloomberg ticket because of no cross over appeal and it would even give some Reagan Democrats a reason to show up and vote since most of them do not like Hillary.
Here's how Obama/Bloomberg run against both party's nominee to win:
1)First , Obama should make it clear he's running as a "independent-/democrat/progressive" , meaning if he wins , he would caucus with the democrats but reach out to the republicans.
This should at least , convince his liberal supporter inside the democratic party that it is okay to vote fopr him instead of Hillary.
------
2)Obama should spend lots of time camapaigning in African American strongholds and his goal would be to siphon off 50% or more of the black electorate away from the democratic nominee.
I think this goal is extremely doable since Obama is already winning about 70%-80% of the black vote in Iowa , Michigan , Nevada and South Carolina according to many polls.
The fact that the Clintons are viciously smearing him using racial insensitive comments through surrogates have helped Obama solidify the Black vote on his corner , and i have no doubt he would be able to convince black voters the Clintons dont give a fuck about them and would not hesitate to throw them uder the bus if it helps them win elections.
------------
3)The Youth/college vote....This is 2 overlapping groups...the 18-29 demo group and the college voting block are 2 consituencies in which Obama have shown mass appeal to.
Most of those young Americans aren't hard core democrats or does not have strong ties to the democratic party since they've never voted in large numbers untill Obama came into the picture...Because of that , this group could be persuaded to vote for Obama since they are already doing so and Hillary is not appealing to them.
------------
In simple wording , Obama will have to keep at least half the base he had inside the democratic party and win a large amount of those independent voters + moderate republicans.
I think a combination of about 30% of the democratic base with about 35% of the independents + 10% of the republican base = to victory.
I would love to see a polling firm poll Obama as a third party candidate alongside the dem and rep nominee and see how he does...I strongly think he could siphon off enough democrats to cripple Hillary and get a large share of the independents + some republicans.
If he were to even think about it , polls would have to show he stands a strong chance of winning as a third party caniddate and he would surely take a private poll before he even think about it.
Now , some may wonder what makes one think Obama can win as a third party candidate when he couldnt even win his party nomination.
My answer to that is simple...I strongly believe that Obama candidacy is being neutralized by the HUGE influence the Clinton has over the democratic party...There's a reason why Bill Clinton is being used as an attack dog.
If Hillary wasn't a Clinton , i think Obama would have coasted through the democratic nomination...But even with their large influence over democratic voters , i still see some anger toward the Clinton inside the democratic establishment and this is what leads me to believe Obama could siphon off as much as 30-35% of the democratic electorate away from Hillary's nomination.
WHAT'S MY PROOF??...JUST TAKE A LOOK AT THE MICHIGAN PRIMARY RESULT WHERE HILLARY CLINTON WAS THE ONLY VIABLE DEMOCRAT ON THE BALLOT AND SHE ONLY MANAGED TO KEEP 55% OF THE DEMOCRATIC BASE ON HER SIDE WHILE A WHOPPING 45% DID NOT VOTE FOR HER..NOW , THOSE ARE DEMOCRATS!!
This right there tells you that if Clinton wins the nomination , a viable progressive third party candidate can pry away about 30-35%(or more) of the democratic electorate away from Clinton....Obama is the only candidate that would make it hard for her to keep democrats in line.
Back to my original question , do you think there is such a path for an Obama/Bloomberg victory?
Remember , i did not ask whether it should happen or whether it would happen.
In my opinion , Obama should take a strong look at it.
Comments are closed on this story.