The myth of narrative in primary elections

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Monday June 02, 2008 · 7:35 AM PDT

2008/06/02 · 07:35

One thing that consistently annoys me is the reference to narrative in primary elections. However, the primary calendar largely creates this fiction. For instance, Clinton's big wins in West Virginia and Kentucky were vaunted as indications of Obama's inability to 'close the deal'.

Yet, as March, Rasmussen released a poll showing Clinton ahead 55-27 in West Virginia. She ended up winning 67-26, not bad for a poll taken two months before the primary. SurveyUSA also released a March poll showing Clinton ahead 58-29 in Kentucky. The final result? 66-30.

Surely, there was some national movement that affected many individual state races. But it wasn't really the individual states that matters all that much, particularly after the first few contests. But what if West Virginia and Kentucky had been held in March, and say Vermont (59-39 for Obama) and Wyoming (61-38) had been moved in their place. Would the media have been talking about a shift in the white vote? Maybe.

I mean, it's natural. As humans, we look for narrative and continuity in things that really don't have them. What can we do to solve this problem of a created, fictional narrative? It's quite a tough question.

Poll
6 votes Show Results
How should we solve it?

I don't know.

I do know, and I posted about it below.

I do know, but I'm going to keep it a secret.

I don't know, but I know Harold Ickes does. But he's not telling.

6 votes Vote Now!
How should we solve it?

I don't know.

0%

0 votes

I do know, and I posted about it below.

0%

0 votes

I do know, but I'm going to keep it a secret.

3 votes

I don't know, but I know Harold Ickes does. But he's not telling.

3 votes

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