Surprising Poll Results in California

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Tuesday January 15, 2008 · 8:31 AM PST

2008/01/15 · 08:31

The just-released L.A. Times poll (article -- full results) for California shows Clinton maintaining a sizable lead there. What's more, there are some surprising internal results that look very good for Clinton. More beneath the fold.

Clinton has superb internals in the L.A. Times poll just released (Jan. 11-13). She leads among every age group, every education group, both men and women, both union and non-union households, and every region. Most importantly, she has a big lead among absentee voters, many of whom have already voted. Poll was taken January 11-13 amont likely voters.

All numbers below show Clinton, then Obama, then Edwards

Among likely voters: 47-31-10

Surprise #1: Hillary's lead among independents in California is even larger than it is among Democrats
Democrats: 47-32-10
Independents: 52-29-7

Surprise #2: Hillary does best in the very liberal Bay Aree
Los Angeles County: 51-29-8
Bay Area: 58-27-8

Suprise #3: Absentee voters, who tend to be well educated, strongly favor Hillary. (42% of California voters vote by absentee, and many of them have already voted.)
Absentee voters: 49-30-8
Precinct voters: 48-32-10

Not a surprise: Hillary maintains a strong lead among Latinos (African-Americans and Asian-Americans were not separated out due to sample size.)
Whites: 47-27-13
Latinos: 61-19-9

The bottom line? Other than with a complete collapse of Clinton's campaign, it's hard to see her losing California (especially because she is compiling a big lead among absentee voters already). And with expected sizable wins in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Arkansas, Clinton has a huge advantage for Super Tuesday and the nomination.

Poll
259 votes Show Results
Who will win California?

Clinton

Obama

Edwards

Kucinich

Sunshine pie

259 votes Vote Now!
Who will win California?

Clinton

104 votes

Obama

90 votes

Edwards

34 votes

Kucinich

2%

5 votes

Sunshine pie

26 votes

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